Flash Flood in New Mexico, July 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
DWPTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CONVECTION INCREASED OVERNIGHT
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND ALSO WEST CENTRAL
NM. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED EAST AND IS OVER EASTERN NM/WEST
TX. MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN THIS EASTERN POSITION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL MID LVL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER NM ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
INDICATED ON MODELS AND WV SAT IMAGE. STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RAIN OVER
THE STATE ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS STORM COVERAGE FRI...BEST COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON A ND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SAT ADDING FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE AT LEAST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DAYS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS
AS WEAK S/WS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. MODELS WANT TO CLEAN SOME OF THE
MOISTURE OUT AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES NORTH OF NM LATER NEXT WEEK.
AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THE ATMOS WILL DRY MUCH BUT WILL NOT
VARY TO MUCH FROM GUIDANCE FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  63  89  61 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  82  57  83  55 /  30  40  30  30
GRANTS..........................  80  55  82  54 /  40  30  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  86  64  89  61 /  60  40  40  30
CHAMA...........................  76  47  78  46 /  60  60  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  54  80  52 /  60  30  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  67  44  72  42 /  60  40  50  30
TAOS............................  75  52  79  51 /  60  30  40  30
SANTA FE........................  76  56  82  53 /  60  40  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  77  58  83  57 /  60  40  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  80  56  86  56 /  60  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  66  86  67 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  85  61  88  63 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  63  85  63 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  85  65  88  64 /  60  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  84  64  89  63 /  60  40  40  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  56  77  51 /  60  40  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  79  54  83  56 /  60  40  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  61  88  61 /  60  40  40  30
RUIDOSO.........................  73  55  80  54 /  60  40  40  30
RATON...........................  74  54  83  54 /  50  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  53  80  53 /  60  30  30  30
ROY.............................  75  58  82  59 /  50  30  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  78  61  87  62 /  60  30  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  81  60  87  60 /  60  30  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  66  92  66 /  60  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  65  90  65 /  60  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  82  63  88  65 /  50  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  83  65  89  65 /  50  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  85  66  93  67 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ002-NMZ003-NMZ004-
NMZ005-NMZ006-NMZ007-NMZ008-NMZ009-NMZ010-NMZ011-NMZ012-
NMZ013- NMZ014-NMZ015-NMZ016-NMZ017-NMZ018-NMZ019-NMZ020-
NMZ021- NMZ026.

&&

23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

NMZ001>021-026-071200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
545 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF NORMALLY DRY
ARROYOS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND
DIPS. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD
TO RAPID RISES OF WATER IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS AND STREAMS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

23