Drought in Texas, July 1 to 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
948 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.UPDATE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL BEND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINED FOCUSED IN THE HBV/BKS
AREA NORTHEAST TO ALI/NQI AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRATIFORM
PRECIP LINGERING EAST TO CRP. A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDED
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD IN THIS AREA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO
SAGGING SOUTHWARD. LATEST NAM ALONG WITH 18Z GFS DEPICT ROUND
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THIS CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN WEBB INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO WEST OF LAREDO ATTM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OUT WEST OVERNIGHT. 18Z GFS
MAINTAINED THE TREND OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH
EXCESSIVE QPF NEAR DRT OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN WEBB COUNTY HAVE
NOT SEEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
HEAVY RAIN OUT WEST OVERNIGHT.

CLOSER TO THE COAST...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. TROPICAL AIRMASS IS
IN PLACE WITH PWS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES MOVING NORTH THRU THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE COASTAL BEND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRAS AND TSRAS PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LULL IN TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVRNITE
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LGT TO MOD RA WITH AN OCCASIONAL LGT STRIKE.
TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH FRI MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...RESULTING
IN CIGS... VSBYS AND WINDS BEING VRB. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO TSRAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006)

SHORT TERM...BASICALLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGGING AND DIVING OVER NORTH TEXAS INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH KEWX...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FFAS
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY OUT IN THAT AREA AND AREA
CAN HOLD MUCH MORE WATER (MORE SANDY OUT THERE TOO). ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW...TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE INTERACT...ALSO SOME WEAK JET
DYNAMICS BY AFTERNOON. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT
AND/OR SATURDAY DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE FFA ISSUANCE. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SPS AND MENTION POTENTIAL. DITTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WITH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT UPPER LOW MAY BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH
WHICH MAY LIMIT RAINFALL MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. RAIN COOLED AIR AND CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY...SO WENT ON THE LOW SIDE
OF GUIDANCE. TROPICAL AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OR A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE.

MARINE...WINDS WILL APPROACH SCEC SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
GULFMEX. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN NUMEROUS THUNDER TOWARD SUNRISE AND IN
THE MORNING...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK SEA BREEZE. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN CONVECTION.

AVIATION...TRIED TO TIME CONVECTION AS BEST AS POSSIBLE WITHOUT
HAVING TOO MANY TEMPOS AND/OR HAVING CATEGORICAL THUNDER IN THE
TAFS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDER...BUT MVFR AND OCNL IFR VSBYS WITH CONVECTION. MOST LIKELY
THUNDER OUT WEST THIS EVENING (KLRD)...THEN SHIFTING BACK EAST AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULFMEX.

HYDROLOGY...AFTER DISCUSSING WITH KEWX AND READING KBROS
DISCUSSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FFA AT THIS TIME. MOST LIKELY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...COULD DEPEND ON BOUNDARIES ALTHOUGH
EXPECT RAINFALL AREA WIDE...SOMETIMES LOCALLY HEAVY. RIO GRANDE
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING SHOULD HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE NORTH RUN OFF AND FALL INTO THE RIVER.

LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...APPEARS HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL NOW EXTENDED INTO MON AS RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED
OVER THE AREA...DESPITE THE FACT THAT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRETCH...WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS DEFINED. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS BOTH SUN AND MON...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEYOND MON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE SHRINKS...BUT APPEARS SCATTERED
POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TUE AND WED...FAVORING INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. THU-SAT MOISTURE MAY MOVE NWD AND POOL ALONG SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N-CNTL TX AND LA. TAPERED POPS BACK BEYOND
THU. MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TT/89...SHORT-TERM
RM/33...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-011200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
650 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORMS WHICH WILL SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S WILL PROVIDE HIGH INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY AND
WEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND GULF
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INTERACTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJG/BB