Drought in New Mexico, July 1 to 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
844 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.UPDATE...LOWERED POPS IN THE NW FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED FROM
THE CNTRL AND SW ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. REMOVED EVENING WORDING
OF CONVECTION IN THE E. WENT MOSTLY CLEAR FAR ERN ZONES. MADE A FEW
MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS THROUGHOUT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...149 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2006...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVING A HARDER TIME DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA AND
LATER START DUE TO THE RIDGE PLACEMENT. EXPECT TODAY WILL BE THE DAY
WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SAT. STORM MOTION
WILL BE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WV SHOWS GOOD
PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER AZ
AND UT. THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO POS TILT AND THEN ELONGATES WEST
TO EAST. MID LVL WINDS OVER CENTRAL NM WILL PUSH STORMS IN MORE OF A
WEST DIRECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
THE GFS FAILS TO SHOW A MUCH OF A CENTER FOR THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH MID LVL WINDS INDICATE A POSITION SLIGHTLY MORE
EAST THAN THE NAM. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN NM AND THE MOISTURE PLUME TILTS TO THE
EAST FROM SW NM TO NE NM. POPS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDING WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THE RIDGE
SEEMS TO REFORM TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MODELS
WANT TO LEAN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND SHIFT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. THIS WOULD CHANGE THE 700 TO 300 MB WIND PATTERN TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER AZ AND EVEN WESTERN NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  93  61  91 /  20  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  54  88  54  86 /  20  20  20  20
GRANTS..........................  55  88  54  86 /  20  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  95  59  93 /  20  20  30  20
CHAMA...........................  46  81  46  79 /  30  30  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  82  54  82 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  42  74  43  72 /  20  40  40  30
TAOS............................  50  85  50  85 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA FE........................  55  86  54  86 /  20  20  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  88  57  87 /  20  20  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  56  92  56  91 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  90  66  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  90  61  89 /  20  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  91  64  91 /  20  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  60  90  61  90 /  10  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  81  53  81 /  20  20  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  85  55  86 /  20  20  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  87  58  88 /  10  10  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  52  80  50  80 /  10  10  10  10
RATON...........................  53  88  53  86 /  10  10  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  83  52  82 /  20  10  30  20
ROY.............................  60  87  59  86 /  10  10  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  61  90  62  90 /   5   5  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  61  92  61  92 /  10  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  94  66  94 /   5   5  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  93  65  93 /   5   5  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  63  91  63  91 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  64  92  64  91 /   5   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  65  93  66  95 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT FRI JUN 30 2006

NMZ001>021-026-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
520 AM MDT FRI JUN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ARE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DPORTER