Hail in Tennessee, June 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
MOVES EAST. HEIGHT RISE ARE IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SO WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY DYING MCS FROM THE MID-
WEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY PULLING CLOUD COVER INTO THE
REGION...MAINLY OVERNIGHT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED FOG...SOME DENSE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. NAM
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THERE TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SLOW RISE OF PWS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -7. HOWEVER...ONLY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE
LOCAL TERRAIN. WILL ADD A SLIGHT POP FOR THE MOUNTAINS ZONES FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...LOOKS LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY...AND MODELS SHOWING A DRIER MONDAY NOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
EXPECTED WILL KEEP THINGS DRY SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR NOW. GFS HAS BACKED OFF
ON MOISTENING THINGS UP SO QUICKLY TUESDAY NOW AS WELL...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE WITH FRONT STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS TUE FOR NOW...BUT
LATER MODEL RUNS MAY PROMPT A CHANGE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA IN THE WED OR
WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH BY THU.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON HOW FAST/HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE IT. AFTER CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE GOING INTO THU. DRY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
NOW...ASSUMING FRONT DOES INDEED MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW FOR LATTER PART OF FORECAST. WILL MAKE A
FEW TWEAKS TO GFS MOS TEMPS...BUT OVERALL THEY LOOK TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  65  93  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  90  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  63  92  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  56  87  60  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DH/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-011000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
530 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006 /430 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MJB