Damaging Wind in Tennessee, July 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...TOUGH TWO PERIODS AS MORE
CLOUDS APPEAR THAN MODELS OR PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. A LOT OF
IT IS BLOW OFF FROM STORMS TO THE WEST AND SO ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
TO FORECAST. TROUBLESOME UPPER TROF FILLING IN A LITTLE BUT SLOW TO
MOVE OUT SO STILL PROVIDING LIFT IN AREA, ENABLING CONVECTION NOW
FORMING OVER SW VA...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND SE TN. EXPECT MORE
STORMS/SHOWERS TO FORM IN NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING
SO HAVE NUDGED POPS UP EVERYWHERE. BIG PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. EXPECT TO ISSUE SEVERAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND HOPING TO AVOID FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST BUILDING NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  WATER
VAPOR SHOWS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WITH A GREAT DEAL OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL
TERRAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HAVE UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN PWS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES+ BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...BUT
MODEL SOUNDING CAPES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  91  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  90  71  87 /  20  30  30  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  91  72  87 /  20  30  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  89  66  87 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

BB/DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-260900-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) TUE JUL 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...
MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THEY WILL TEND TO BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE.

HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LCM