Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT.

SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
ALONG A FULLERTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE. THESE APPEAR TO BE FORCED BY
THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE DATA REVEALS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR KVTN TO KMCK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN
INITIATING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT LAPS
DATA SHOWS A STRONG CAP STILL IN PLACE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO OVERCOME.

THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MID TO
UPPER 60F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE
STABLE...WHERE LAPS DATA IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CAPES AROUND 800
J/KG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ERODING CIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SOME ADDED
FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BELIEVE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT EXISTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER WAVE...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND RUC
ARE SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS HOLDING BACK SURFACE HEATING. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND MARGINAL AT BEST
SHEAR...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A REDUCED THREAT OF HAIL GIVEN THE
PULSE NATURE EXPECTED AND VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. STORM MOTION
AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. THE LLJ PUNCHES UP TO 45-50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM...WITH HIGHS AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F
ACROSS OUR KS COUNTIES. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHICH THEN MAY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
EMBEDDED UPPER IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
LINGERING LOW POPS ON THURSDAY. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SURE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT TO BRING WESTERN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
WILL RETURN HOT AND DUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

KB/KISNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
261200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)