Lightning Strike in South Carolina, May 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS SOUTH
END. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...AND IS COINCIDENT WITH A MOISTURE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS
ENTERING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IS BACK IN WEST TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE UPPER MISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A MOIST AXIS FROM MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. A DRY AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
WITH ANOTHER MOIST AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST AS FAR NORTH AS
VIRGINIA.

AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS. BY
AFTERNOON THE AIRMASS IN THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE
TO THE EXTENT THAT CAPES OF AROUND 2000 ARE EXPECTED. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS WILL BE RAISED ACROSS TO CHANCE THE AREA.
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGHLIGHTING THE RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT WARM IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA...AND A BIT COOL IN THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM
THE RUC...WHICH COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE STRONGER ETA AND WEAKER
GFS WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DUE TO TEMPERATURES CHANGES AND AN UPDATED DEW POINT FORECAST...
AS WELL AS HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 255 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ROBUST WAA PATTERN GETTING UNDER WAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWFA LEADING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL JUST WEAKLY FORCED
TODAY...MUCH OF THIS THE RESULT OF AFOREMENTIONED WAA. AT ANY
RATE...STILL ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS CVRG AND A STARTING TAD LATER IN
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.  KINEMATICS TODAY NOT ALL THAT BAD FOR A FEW SVR
THUNDERSTORMS...FAIR AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR AND UPPER JETLET
PROVIDING A SLUG OF DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT
MODEST LAPSE RATES.

NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CVRG THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...INCREASING CIN AND LLVL FLOW BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE...BUT
A CONSTANT FEED OF HIGHER LLVL THETA-E AIR AND LLVL SW JET COULD
KEEP ACTIVITY GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM LATER TODAY FOR
INDICATIONS OF FORWARD PROPAGATING LATE NIGHT MCS. NAM FCST SNDGS
DO INDICATE DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALL NIGHT.

LLVL WAA AND MOISTENING TREND CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LESS UNSTABLE THAN TODAY AS VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRESENT. CWFA IS ALSO IN BETWEEN STRONGEST
AND CONVERGENT LLVL THETA-E AXES...ACRS ERN TENN AND THE ERN
CAROLINAS. NONETHELESS...WITH MID-LVL TROUGH SWINGING ACRS...DEEP
SHEAR IS STRONGER AND SVR STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE SCALE FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANY DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WANING...WITH
LINGERING WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE CWFA COMES UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW OR WEAK LLVL THETA-E
ADVECTION SATURDAY...BUT PREFER THE NAM/S FURTHER WWD DEPICTION OF
MOIST AXIS...EFFECTIVELY LEAVING THE CWFA DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK WITH DRIER NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW ACRS THE REGION ALONG WITH
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ALL ACRS THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE MOIST RETURN FLOW STARTS UP ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS LINES UP
REASONABLY WELL WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER RH ON THE NAM 925MB SURFACE.
FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE AND LOWEST PRESSURE DEFICITS
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NC. THEREFORE...WHILE IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL...I/M GOING WITH A LOW CLOUD FREE FORECAST AT KCLT. FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES IS BENIGN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20KTS LIKELY AT UPSTATE TAF
LOCATIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE A /CB/ GROUP IN AT ALL
TAF SITES...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KAVL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CONVECTION COULD GO WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY /CB/ AT KAVL AFTER 00 UTC.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-261030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
630 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HAIL             ROSMAN                  35.14N 82.82W
05/25/2006  E0.75 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   POST OFFICE

            THREE-QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL COVERING THE GROUND
            AROUND THE POST OFFICE IN ROSMAN.

&&

DEO

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