Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS THE CWFA WITHIN
THE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD SINKING
FRONT. ALOFT...S/WV ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH WILL WORK WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRIER
MID/UPPER LVL AIR...ENHANCING DELTA THETA-E VALUES AND SOME
SCATTERED WET MICROBURSTS. LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WELL
CARRY SOLID SCATTERED POPS EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE FAR LESS VOLATILE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITHIN LLVL NORTHEASTERLY NORTH OF CONVERGENCE
AXIS...WHICH BY THEN SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MAIN SOURCE OF
SOME WEAK LIFT LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SOME UPSLOPE AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER LVL IMPULSES RIPPLING THRU WITHIN WNW FLOW. SENSIBLE WX
FCST WILL MAINLY BE JUST A TOKEN SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS AND MAX
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NGHT THROUGH FRI...
WL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WED EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWFA. THERE IS
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING...AND THE MODELS DON/T RESPOND WITH
MUCH PCPN...SO I/M A BIT DOUBTFUL ABOUT EVEN LOW CHANCE POPS. ON
THURSDAY THE SAME HOLDS TRUE AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. LATE IN THE DAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT THIS FORCING LOOKS TO STAY UP THROUGH
KY AND THE VIRGINIA/S. HOWEVER...MODEL LAYER RH/S ARE HIGH...AND THE
MAV POPS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE. SUSPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IN THE MTNS DURING THE EARLY AFTN
WHICH WL WORK SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL TOLD...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
MAV POPS AND TEMPS ON THU.

FRIDAY/S FORECAST DEPENDS LARGELY ON WHERE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE.
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THU NIGHT AND
THEN DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALBEIT
WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE PCPN. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WHICH
IT HAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS
GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE POOLING AND HIGH CAPES WITH THIS
FEATURE. I CAN/T QUITE JUMP ON THE GFS BOAT ATTM...BUT I WILL KEEP
HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWFA AS A NOD TO IT/S NOCTURNAL MCS. I/LL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERING FRONTAL
POSITIONS OF THE TWO MODELS. THE NAM...HOWEVER...DOES LOOK A
LITTLE ODD AS IT TENDS TO SLOW THE FRONT ON ACCOUNT OF AN UPSTREAM
CLOSED LOW. THIS FEATURE IS THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS.

FRI NGHT THROUGH TUE...
HPC HAS FAVORED THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF AGAIN TODAY. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL REMOVE ALL POPS
FROM THE SUN-MON PERIODS. THIS ACTUALLY AGREES WITH THE HPC
FRONTAL POSITION WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE GRIDS MAINTAIN POPS THAT SEEM A BIT TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. I/LL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY...BUT I/M RATHER SKEPTICAL WITH THE FRONT SO FAR TO
OUR SOUTH. BY NEXT TUE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT ALL THE TERMINALS IN THE
VICINITY REALM FOR NOW...BEST AND EARLIEST CHANCES REMAIN AT THE NC
TAFS...AND LATE TODAY IN THE UPSTATE. OF COURSE...WILL AMEND WHEN A
SPECIFIC BONA FIDE THREAT MATERIALIZES. WILL RUN CHANCES IN THE
UPSTATE ALL THE WAY TO MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE MAX LINGERS
UNTIL THEN. OVERNIGHT...BASED ON DEGREE OF MIXING OF SFC DWPTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOG THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL IN THE UPSTATE...WITH MVFR
POSSIBILITIES AT KHKY AND AT LEAST OCNL IFR AT KAVL. MOISTENING
100-85H LAYER WITHIN NE FLOW OCCURS LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
INCONCLUSIVE WHETHER MVFR STRATOCU CIGS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP...12
UTC MET/MAV DOES NOT THINK SO...AND WILL LEAVE SCT FOR NOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             2 SE SUGAR HILL         35.56N 82.02W
08/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF THREE-QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL. THEY
            ALSO HAD STRONG WIND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE VISIBLE
            DAMAGE AROUND THEIR HOUSE.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

NCZ035-082130-
ALEXANDER-
427 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING ALEXANDER COUNTY...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORAVIAN FALLS...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  4 MILES NORTHEAST OF STONY POINT BY 530 PM EDT.

THISD STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
COULD INTENSIFY EVEN FURTHER.

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

NCZ036-082145-
IREDELL-
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING IREDELL COUNTY...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF HARMONY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
STATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STATESVILLE BY 515 PM EDT.
  TROUTMAN BY 530 PM EDT.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

SCZ009-014-082145-
CHESTER-YORK-
445 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN YORK COUNTY...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF CATAWBA...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
ROCK HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT LAWN BY 515 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

SCZ007-082215-
SPARTANBURG-
511 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING SPARTANBURG COUNTY...

AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PACOLET...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPARTANBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

SCZ013-082230-
UNION-
524 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING UNION COUNTY...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
UNION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUFFALO BY 540 PM EDT.
  UNION BY 550 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY