Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, August 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
LATEST UPPER CHARTS SHOW A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-SIDE TROUGH NOSES DOWN
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA. FURTHER
NORTH...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL CREEP SOUTHWARD TODAY...AND EASE INTO NORTH
GA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THE FRONT WILL
PUSH VERY FAR SOUTHWARD...AND LIKELY NOT PUSHING INTO GA UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE FOR TODAY...WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VERY HOT TEMPS TO
ONCE AGAIN SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE GENERALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH AND WARMER DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOCUSED. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...BUT MID-UPPER RIDGING AND LACK OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BUMPED RAIN CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY FOR WED AND THU AFTERNOONS AS THE ACTIVE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE RETREATS BACK OVER GA...WHILE THE SURFACE
FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING
MAX HEATING. WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR WED AND THU WITH A
WEAKER RIDGE OVERHEAD...COOL FRONT IN THE AREA...AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
GFS SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND
PUSHING A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS GA FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
WARRANT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...WITH 50-60% POPS ON FRIDAY...
DIMINISHING TO 40% ON SAT...THEN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUN-MON AS
THE SHORTWAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO POSSIBLY CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S BY SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TAF SITES. WILL GO WITH
VCTS AT TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. PATCHY LIGHT FOG/HAZE THIS MORNING MAY
RESTRICT VSBYS INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE RANGE UNTIL AROUND 14Z. LIGHT
AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NW 3-7KT BY 16Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         97  75  93  74 /  30  10  40  20
ATHENS          98  73  94  71 /  30  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     95  73  92  71 /  40  20  30  20
ROME            98  73  97  74 /  20  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        98  76  95  75 /  40  20  40  30
MACON           97  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  30
PEACHTREE CITY  95  70  93  71 /  30  10  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    94  70  93  71 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-090945-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
741 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A LEE SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND A WARM MOIST AIRMASS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 RANGE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 TO
-4. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS...A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
113 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

GAZ070-081745-
113 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL...50 MPH WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN IN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF JOHNSTONVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAMAR COUNTY THROUGH 145 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE JOHNSTONVILLE...GOGGINS AND BARNESVILLE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
141 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

GAZ054-055-081815-
141 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS IN
FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KENWOOD...JONESBORO AND LOVEJOY. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.