Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATE FRI
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE U90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRI. HOWEVER...DURING THE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK
DWPTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 60S. MIXING SHOULD NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK FLOW INDICATED ON THE WRF
SOUNDINGS...BUT DWPTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 TO U60S LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST T/DWPT FORECAST...HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 FRI AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. I WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING
AND AREA OF GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS WIL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...WHERE IT REMAINS INTO SUNDAY....AND REMAINGIN A FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC. OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON
MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TUESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
BELOW NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA AND TSRA
FORECAST AND THE RESULTING FOG TONIGHT. I WILL INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR
KHKY...KGMU...KGSP...AND KAND. KAVL RECEIVED A TSRA AROUND 18Z AND
THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WILL MONITOR KAVL FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT. FRI...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD BECOME SCT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
     FRIDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ036-037-056-057-067>072-082-508 UNTIL 7
     PM THURSDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-082 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ006>014-019 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
     FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/NED
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
630 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL OR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ONE MORE HOT DAY WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-005-032000-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
304 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTINGSOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROSMAN...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  5 MILES EAST OF ROCKY BOTTOM BY 310 PM EDT.
  1 MILE EAST OF PICKENS BY 355 PM EDT.
  5 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASLEY BY 400 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

NCZ507-508-032015-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
310 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING RUTHERFORD COUNTY...

AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF LAKE LURE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUTHERFORDTON BY 340 PM EDT.
  SPINDALE BY 345 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

GAZ029-032015-
ELBERT-
318 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF NUBERG...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES WEST OF RUCKERSVILLE BY 330 PM EDT.
  ELBERTON BY 340 PM EDT.
  FORTSONIA BY 415 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

NCZ035-056-032030-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-
325 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LONGVIEW...OR NEAR HICKORY...MOVING EAST AT
5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HICKORY BY 335 PM EDT.
  ST. STEPHENS BY 405 PM EDT.
  CONOVER BY 425 PM EDT.
  CLAREMONT BY 430 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

NCZ068-SCZ008-009-032030-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-YORK-
326 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLACKSBURG...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACKSBURG BY 340 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

SCZ012-019-032030-
GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
332 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NINETY SIX BY 410 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44