Flash Flood in Texas, August 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 PM MDT WED AUG 2 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AFTER TODAY A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL START A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AND WILL SLOWLY RISE TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US ALMOST A WEEK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS FINALLY ABOUT TO FADE AWAY...BUT TO REPLACE IT WILL BE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE. IN
THE SHORT TERM WE WILL SEE MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE
REGION. PWS THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
CURRENT STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SO STORMS THAT FORM ON THE SACS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN
THE DIRECTION OF EL PASO. WELL SEE IF THE STORM CAN WORK THAT FAR
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS I SAID BEFORE THE ONE UPPER LOW
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW. THIS SECOND UPPER LOW WILL
FORM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO. THE LOW WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE
EASTERLIES AND THAT WILL MOVE IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THEN INTO
ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. AS THE LOW COMES ACROSS IT WILL GIVE US ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE ETA SAYS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE PUSHED
OFF INTO ARIZONA WHILE THE GFS SAYS WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE PLUME...BUT STILL VERY MOIST. IVE GONE THE MIDDLE GROUND
BY BEGINNING TO TRIM BACK POPS OUT EAST FIRST AND THEN STILL
KEEPING THEM SCATTERED OUT WEST. OUR DRYING TREND SHOULD ALLOW US
TO DISCONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EITHER TONIGHT OR LATE ON
THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND MOST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE TO OUR
WEST...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP
ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MOVE TO OUR WEST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AND
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z-02/18Z
GENERALLY SCT050 SCT-BKN100-150 AGL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-05Z WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS NEAR STORMS WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. ACTIVITY LESS NUMEROUS AND INTENSE THAN YESTERDAY AND
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED NORTH OF KTCS AND WEST OF KDMN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  91  70  90  69 /  40  40  40  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        58  89  65  85  66 /  40  40  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              67  91  67  90  69 /  40  40  40  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              64  88  65  90  67 /  30  40  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              47  68  48  67  48 /  30  50  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  89  64  90  67 /  30  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             60  82  59  78  60 /  40  40  40  40  40
DEMING                  62  90  64  89  66 /  40  40  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               60  89  63  87  65 /  40  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1029 AM MDT WED AUG 2 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-031630-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1029 AM MDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL DURING
THE LAST WEEK...SO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD
TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEEK AS
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1225 AM MDT THU AUG 3 2006

NMZ024-032-TXZ055-030700-
SOUTHERN DESERT NM-EL PASO TX-TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
1225 AM MDT THU AUG 3 2006

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EL PASO AND DONA ANA
COUNTIES...

AT 1217 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
EAST OF MONTANA VISTA TO ORGAN. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EL PASO...LAS
CRUCES...VINTON...VADO...CANUTILLO...LA MESA AND MESILLA.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

LUNDEEN