Blizzard and Winter Storm in Rhode Island, February 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
600 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006

.UPDATE...
GOOD NEWS FOR SPOTTERS...WE HAVE FOUND A WAY TO GET AROUND THE
TECHNICAL PROBLEM WITH ONLINE SPOTTER REPORTS. PLEASE GO DIRECTLY TO
THE SPOTTER REPORT FORM BY TYPING THE FOLLOWING INTO THE ADDRESS BAR
OF YOUR BROWSER IN LOWERCASE:

WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/SPOTTERREPORTFORM.HTML

YOU WILL THEN BE ABLE TO ENTER YOUR REPORTS ONLINE. ALL REPORTS OF
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WIND DAMAGE OF MEASURED WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH WILL BE APPRECIATED.

THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 457 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE BOTH
MODELS ARE CLOSE...AND SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS
FIELDS.  MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE SNOW SLIGHTLY...AND TO LOWER AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS
SLIGHTLY BY AND INCH OR SO IN SOME SPOTS.  BANDED NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY VARIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AT 4 AM...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM TO BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM
TODAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CT.  HAVE LEFT WARNINGS INTACT.

SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THINKING
IS WE HAVE ANOTHER 7 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE...SO SEAS WILL HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD AND CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON.  HAVE
POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

ONCE STORM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEPT FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE LONGER TERM.

ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SHIFTING
POLAR VORTEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL YIELD A BROAD SW
FLOW OVER THE NE. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABV NORMAL AWAY
FROM THE COAST WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU. THEREAFTER...SLOW MOVING
FNT ACRS NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION FRI AND SAT.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT...AS GFS AND
CMC GLOBAL HAVE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE NE
FRI-SAT...WHICH WOULD PUSH FNT OFSHR. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND UKMET
INDICATE WEAKER AND BROADER SW FLOW ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE
SFC FNT. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO FNT GETTING HUNG-UP NEAR NEW
ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT.
GIVEN THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM CLIMO FRI AND
SAT...AND LEAN TWD WARM TEMPS AND LOW POPS WED AND THU.  FOR MON AND
BEYOND...WEST WINDS 20-25 KT MON/MON NGT...BECOMING SW TUE AND WED.
SW WNDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NGT.

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING TO IFR THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER MID ATLANTIC SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60KT ARE QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WITH 40-50KT AS FAR
INLAND AS KPVD...KORH AND KBOS.

IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. EXPECT AN INITIAL JUMP TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
MANY TERMINALS IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RI AIRPORTS THROUGH 1 PM. WE
EXPECT TO ISSUE THE SAME FOR KBOS/LOGAN A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING.

MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION FOR ANY MARINERS OUT THERE AS STORM PEAKS LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...50-60KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL RESPOND RAPIDLY AND WE STILL THINK
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 20 PERCENT TOO LOW...A TYPICAL
BIAS...SO WE BUMPED UP SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT ON OUR OUTER WATERS,

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MON AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

SPOTTERS...
DUE TO A TECHNICAL PROBLEM ON OUR WEBSITE...THE ONLINE SPOTTER
FEATURE IS NOT OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME.  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
CALL IN YOUR SNOW AND WIND REPORTS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.  WE ARE SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CTZ003-004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>011-026 UNTIL 7 PM
     SUNDAY.
  ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MAZ007-012>024 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024 FROM 9 AM
     SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-121115-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
511 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MAJOR WINTER STORM UNFOLDING FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND COINCIDENT
WITH FULL MOON. BLIZZARD WARNINGS AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. NOREASTER HAS SLOWED
ITS ARRIVAL WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING REGION FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM
OVERNIGHT...THEN THE BULK OF SNOW COMES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE
HEIGHT OF THE SNOW AROUND NOON. OVERALL A 10 TO 18 INCH SNOW FALL BY
NIGHT FALL SUNDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FAR NORTHWEST AND OVER
NANTUCKET.  ALSO...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE AREA
FROM PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON...SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER CAPE.

OVER THE WATERS HAVE HOISTED A STORM WARNING FOR ALL DAY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE FOR EAST COAST MASSACHUSETTS FOR THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FROM 10 AM TO 1 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SUNDAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY WIND
DAMAGE OR MEASURED WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. AS USUAL...SNOW
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

KAB