Heavy Rain in Pennsylvania, June 25 to 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
705 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR PHILADELPHIA AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST AS THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS PUSHED WESTWARD OVER THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE EVEN CLEARED IN SOME SOUTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES. HOWEVER, AN
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE DCA AREA WAS HEADING EAST
AND COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THESE SHOWERS COULD BE QUITE HEAVY BUT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY.THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE WEST ARE ALSO
SPREADING BACK INTO THE WATCH AREA TO THE N/W OF PHL AND THERE IS A
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE.

RNS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACKROUND...
EXCESSIVE RAIN OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER CAROLINE MD AND SUSSEX DE
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 10 INCHES OF RAIN (FEDERALSBURG MD). THE
CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECAME MORE SCATTERED IN
THE AREAS THAT GOT THE HEAVY RAIN. THE BAND OF HEAVY PCPN WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF REFORMING FARTHER NORTH, OR CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE RIVER
SW TO CECIL MD. OVER THE REST OF THE AREAS, THERE WERE SHOWERS AND
MOST AREAS DID NOT GET EXCESSIVE RAIN, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS
(BERKS COUNTY PA) LOOK TO HAVE GOTTEN 2-3 INCHES BASED ON RADAR AND
3.6 INCHES WAS OBSERVED AT HAMBURG IN BERKS COUNTY SINCE 8 AM.

TONIGHT...MODELS GENERALLY HAVE NOT BEEN PLACING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN THE PROPER AREAS. I HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT, BUT KEPT THE MODEL SOLUTION IN MIND FOR PLACEMENT. THIS
MEANS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NE OF DCA SHOULD KEEP DVLPG THIS
EVENING AND KEEPS SPREADING INTO WESTERN NJ, NRN DE AND EXTREME NE
MD. THE HEAVIEST PCPN AREAS COULD START TO TRAIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
FLOODING RAINS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. OVER EXTREME SE NJ/SRN DE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD, I EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
FRAGMENTED AND WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TO THE
WEST. THIS PUSH OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PCPN TO MOVE NW IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. FOR THIS REASON THE FFA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY WESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH NJ AND ALSO INCLUDING NRN DE AND CECIL CO MD. TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA, THE FFA STILL EXPIRES AT 11PM WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF LESS PCPN THERE.

LATE TONIGHT, MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE APPLACHIANS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE NE ACROSS
EPA AND NRN NJ TOWARD MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THE GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST, BASED ON THEIR VORTICITY, THAT THE MOISTURE WILL REORIENT
AND COULD RETURN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. A SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL
JUST TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEEPER DRY AIR JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEST. TRIED TO BREAK OUT KACY/KMIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON
HOPING THAT THIS LAYER MAY MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY
VARIABLE ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER ZONES WITH CONDITIONS FLIPPING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA DIMINISHING. THE
AIR MASS ALONG KILG-KTTN STRUGGLING TO MIX UNDER CI OVC. TRIED TO
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT I MAY HAVE
TO KNOCK THEM BACK DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE IN
THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS SO LEFT THEM LOW THROUGH THE EVENING.
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SE FLOW OFF THE WATERS WILL BE STRONG/PERSISTENT
ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT AT LEAST ALONG THE COAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR 44009 TAKES SEAS ON AN INTERESTING 10 FT WAVE
HEIGHT JOURNEY BY THE EVENING HOURS OF THE 27TH. WHILE THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE, THE TREND TO AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS SOLID AT THIS
POINT. I WILL BRING THE FLAG UP TONIGHT AND LET IT GO INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069 UNTIL 6 AM
     MONDAY.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>009- UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ008 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8
     PM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-261000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE FLOOD WATCH COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR REISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

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