Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, July 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
355 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY
6AM. WL LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE A EARLY MORNING GROUP OVER THE EAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS THE HEAT. SHOULD BE THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR
WITH A 593DM RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STAYING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROBLEM WITH THIS HEAT SPELL COMPARED TO THE LAST
ONE SEVERAL WEEKS AGO IS THAT THE HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH WORSE WITH
DWPTS ALREADY AROUND 70...WITH HIGHER DWPTS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION THRU THE DAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
+22C WEST AND +20C EAST...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
1435-1445M. UPSTREAM VALUES SIMILAR TO THIS YIELD TEMPS IN THE 90-95
RANGE. WL GENERALLY GO WITH VALUES AROUND 95 OVER THE WEST AND
AROUND 90 EAST. CLE SHOULD TOP OUT 90-95 WITH MFD ALSO AROUND 90.
WITH DWPTS TOPPING OUT 70-75 TODAY...THIS SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE WEST. CONTEMPLATED A HEAT
WARNING FOR TOLEDO METRO DUE TO URBAN EFFECTS...BUT OPTED TO HOLD
OFF TO SEE IF DWPTS ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 70S OUT THERE TODAY.
WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH CLEVELAND METRO FOR BORDERLINE WARNING
CRITERIA. SW FLOW MAY NUDGE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO REACH THE 105 HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD.
HOWEVER...ANY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO DRY OUT THE DWPTS BY 1 OR 2
DEGREES WHICH MAY KEEP THE HEAT INDEX FROM GOING OVER WARNING
CRITERIA. MAV GUIDANCE STILL WAY TOO WARM EVERYWHERE TODAY...WENT
WITH THE COMPROMISE MET/FWC. ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION
LIKELY SET OFF SOME BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
CAUSE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES 2000 J/KG OR
GREATER WITH LITTLE CINH.

SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH MAY PROMPT UPGRADES TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS ESPECIALLY FOR THE URBAN AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY AS THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
HEADLINES AS IS. STRONGER CAP ON TUESDAY...SO THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE A REASON TO GO WITH POPS ATTM. SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING IT TO LAKE ERIE BY 12Z
THU. HOWEVER...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
BECOMES EAST-WEST ORIENTATED AND PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. WL
THEREFORE REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN WED...AND DELAY IT BACK TO WED
NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.

SINCE IT WILL STAY VERY MUGGY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS (WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S)...HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH A ONE HEADLINE
HEAT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF SPLITTING THE ADVISORY UP IN TWO HEADLINES
EVEN THOUGH TECHNICALLY OUR CRITERIA DOES NOT REQUIRE SPECIFIC
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. DOING THIS WILL PLACE A .CAN IN THE VTEC
CODE...BUT BE AWARE THAT THE HEAT INDEX IS NOT CANCELLED FOR
TODAY...IT HAS JUST BEEN COMBINED IN THE TUESDAYS HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...

NO CHANGES. WL CONTINUE HIGH CHC POPS THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR
THU/FRI. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
THROUGH MID WEEK PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...THU LOOKS LIKELY FOR OUR CWA.  OP GFS IN LINE WITH
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF...THEREFORE ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO MORE
SQUARELY PLACE FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON THU.
SOME CHANCE LINGERS INTO FRI...AS FRONT SLOWS AS IT RUNS INTO
SOUTHERN STATES HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS.  TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONT WILL DROP BACK TO NORMALS...OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW.  WE WILL GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WITH RETURN FLOW TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS HEADING TOWARD ERIE AND YOUNGSTOWN.
OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS...WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
SOME IFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO HAZY VFR
SKIES AND VSBYS BY NOON. AS FOR ERIE AND YOUNGSTOWN...AM EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 OR
4 AM...LIKEWISE EXPECTING FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK AND
HAZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...HEAT ADV MON AND TUE.
.PA...HEAT ADV MON AND TUE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-311430-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 100 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY COULD CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KIELTYKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
421 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ORWELL                  41.54N 80.86W
07/31/2006                   ASHTABULA          OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A NURSING HOME IN ORWELL WAS FLOODED. A FEW RESIDENTS HAD
            TO BE MOVED FROM THEIR ROOMS.

&&

MRD