Wildfire in Oregon, July 25 to 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. IT ALSO SHOWS A MODEST
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE RUC AND THE NAM MODELS SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL OREGON. AS SUCH THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN CROOK
COUNTY...GRANT COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY SOUTH OF LA GRANDE AND IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WALLOWA
COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC TO ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN WEDNESDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO
TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS. I DECREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BY
A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES...IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY...FOR THE CITY OF
YAKIMA AND IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. I WILL ISSUE AN
UPDATE TO THE ZONE PACKAGE TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. OTHERWISE...
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE YAKIMA VALLEY SOUTH OF UNION
GAP AND IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
TWEB ROUTE KDLS-KRDM-KLKV BETWEEN KRDM AND KLKV. ELSEWHERE SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES AND IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS
WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20
KTS OR GREATER.  88

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN AND BRING BREEZY WINDS TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE DAY BEFORE...THOUGH WILL REMAIN ABOVE
100 FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY. A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THOSE AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL
THEN TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT BELOW 100 DEGREES.
DK

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP
UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE TROUGH ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE.  94

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027-WAZ028.

&&

TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
99/94/94

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1052 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY IN THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN OREGON...THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.

WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-261215-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
1052 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
     WALLOWA COUNTY, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY
     BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

EXCESSIVE HEAT
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, LOWER
     COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AS MARINE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON AS
WELL AS THE YAKIMA VALLEY WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES COOL DOWN...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 100 DEGREES. THEREFORE...THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE PRODUCT PDXNPWPDT (WWUS76 KPDT).

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON MAY TAP INTO
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...
WALLOWA COUNTY...THE JOHN DAY BASIN AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS STABLE AND WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL TURN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEATHER DISTURBANCES COULD
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...WALLOWA
COUNTY...THE JOHN DAY BASIN AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.