Hail in Oklahoma, April 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES PACKAGE WILL MAINLY REFLECT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FA...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON CLOUDS AND RADAR TRENDS. ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE DRYLINE AND UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL
SWEEP THE AREA LATER TODAY. MODEL RUNS A LITTLE SLOWER...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM. 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH DRYLINE. HAVE OPTED TO
SHIFT HIGHEST POPS WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS
CLEARING IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. WILL
GO AHEAD FOR NOW AND LEAVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR NOW. DID TWEAK TEMPS DOWN SOME...WITH THE BIGGEST
ADJUSTMENTS OVER FAR ERN OK AND NW AR.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 23
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF JAY OKLAHOMA TO OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA LINE.
	ONSET...NOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND BY AFTERNOON.  THE PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A RISK OF TORNADOES...HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTERS...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.  INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 3 PM...WITH
INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED
BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK TORNADIC POTENTIAL...THUS
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF TORNADO WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
SUCH AS FAYETTEVILLE...BENTONVILLE...FORT SMITH...OZARK...HUNTSVILLE...AND
EUREKA SPRINGS.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PLAN FOR STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND
WIND FIELDS STRONGLY SUPPORT TORNADIC POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORM WHICH
SLOWS AND TRAVELS MORE EASTWARD.  BE ALERT AND EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD.  THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MONITOR THUNDERSTORM AND FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

OKZ073>075-061615-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
1028 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 1028 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...
LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...MC CURTAIN...KEOTA...KANIMA...
WILBURTON...GOWEN...PANOLA...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW...
BACHE...ALDERSON...KREBS AND QUINTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.