Hail in Iowa, April 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.UPDATE...H85 FRONT HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BACK BUILDING
MCS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. PRECIP FALLING
SHOULD TO STRENGTHEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND KEEP THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER
MAX TEMPS TODAY AND INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WX EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONVECTION THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS A VORT MAX MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY PRECIP BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...THE MODELS NOW DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WARM FRONT AND STALL IT OUT JUST SOUTH OF I-80. FRONT SHOULD BE
STRENGTHENED BY A STRONG LAKE AFFECT TONIGHT. INCREASED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO INCREASE PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE
GETTING WETTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED HEADLINES
FOR A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM STERLING...TO MUSCATINE...AND THEN WEST ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30.

PRECIP TO RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH QUIET WX EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROF BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING. THEREFORE
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT UNTIL NOON
FRIDAY.
IA...IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068.
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015.
MO...NONE.

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
OVERALL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ONLY THREAT IS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...THE AREA MOST AT RISK IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SIGOURNEY IOWA TO GALESBURG ILLINOIS.

A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SITUATION APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL. A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE
AREA AT MOST RISK IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...WITH A SLIGHTLY
LOWER RISK ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM THE QUAD CITIES WEST
TO MARENGO.

THE CEDAR...WAPSIPINICON...PECATONICA...ROCK...AND LOWER IOWA RIVERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RISES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS AS THE
RESPECTIVE THREATS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARENGO...TO MUSCATINE...TO
STERLING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.