Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
615 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH.  ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.  WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT.
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL
WITH WATCH BOX.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.  DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER
60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
WESTERN OHIO.  LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL
INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN
2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY
DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA.  MODERATE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL.  SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER
THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS GENERALLY WEAKEND LAST FEW HOURS BUT SOME
NEW DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ON BACK EDGE BEFORE GETTING EAST OF
YNG AND ERI LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL GRTLKS AND MIDWEST TODAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY BUT THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL PRETTY MUCH FORCE ME TO
INCLUDE STORMS IN TAFS AND MY BEST GUESS IS THIS EVENING INTO FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN MOST TAF SITES. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL
NOT KEEP THEM IN TAF ALL NIGHT LONG. MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY BY
DAYBREAK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENED UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY FROM GOING TOO LOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
458 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-220900-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHEN A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THESE MAY ALSO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

LEZ145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-220900-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-
LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-
MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
458 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT WHEN A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND THESE MAY ALSO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.