Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL BE CONVECTION.

THE DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE POLAR FRONT BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WITH A WARM AIR LOW/LEE TROUGH COMBINATION OVER
WEST KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FROM DODGE
CITY EAST AND SOUTH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND H8
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS C SO PLENTY OF REASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. THE SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE IS IDENTIFYING THE BEST
INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF FROM LIBERAL NORTHEAST THROUGH HAYS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO INITIATE ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE, CONVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES IN COLORADO IN THE VICINITY OF THE POLAR FRONT AND EXPECT
THIS AREA TO BECOME MULTICELLULAR IN MODE AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

IN BOTH CASES ABOVE, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WHICH INTERSECT THE
TONGUE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TO BETWEEN DODGE
CITY AND PRATT COULD TURN SEVERE EARLY WHILE THE COLORADO STORMS
WONT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. HAVE INCREASED POPS AS
MUCH AS I COULD FOR THIS SITUATION IN KEEPING WITH MY NEIGHBORS
FORECASTS.

MOST OF THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE EAST BY MID MORNING WITH THE SURFACE FRONT FORCED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
ENHANCED CONVECTION IN FAR SOUTH COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MADE FEW OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GRIDS.

DAYS 3-7...
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SHOWING REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. HTS RISING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND CANADA AS
SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE DOWN THE NW FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AIR INTO THE CNTL/ERN
CONUS. MODELS DO BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW/WEST COAST TROF DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND
HOWEVER IS TO SHIFT OUR WEST COAST RIDGE EASTWARD AND DEVELOP AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE DETAILS
THAT FAR OUT UNCLEAR AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFTS EASTWARD
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND BY THE 8 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME. ALSO AS
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD A NW FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE OUR CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL RETAIN NIGHTTIME PCPN CHANCES. SUNDAY MAY
BE A MORE FAVORABLE TIME THAN SATURDAY BUT GIVEN NW FLOW UNABLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SMALL POPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  82  65  85 /  70  20  20  0
GCK  67  82  64  84 /  80  10  20  0
EHA  63  87  64  86 /  50  40  60  0
LBL  68  85  66  87 /  70  30  70  0
HYS  69  82  65  86 /  80  60  20  0
P28  71  88  68  88 /  60  70  20  0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN08/18
JOHNSON/BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
114 PM CDT (1214 PM MDT) WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS WILL
BE VERY HEAVY AT TIMES SO SOME LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

INITIALLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
A WIND SHIFT LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM ABOUT ULYSSES NORTHEAST
THROUGH HAYS. A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE TO THESE STORMS
FROM AROUND THE DODGE CITY AREA EASTWARD SO THAT AREA IS FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH OR MOVE OFF BY MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY, STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT ARRIVING AT THE
KANSAS BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELLULAR
IN NATURE AND ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS. THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...BUT SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

JOHNSON