Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, July 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
735 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DTW TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS SOME HEATING TAKES
PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS PER RUC SOLUTION.  AFTER FROPA
TAKES PLACE...RESIDUAL SC AND AC WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY TRY TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.  EARLIER THINKING WAS
THAT MIST WOULD NOT DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT GRADIENT WINDS APPEAR TO
DIMINISH TO CALM PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT.  THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE
MIST BUT NO LOWER THAN 2 STATUTE MILES AT FINDLAY AND MANSFIELD AND
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES ELSEWHERE.
 &&

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED)...
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF AREA WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF RAIN DURING
THE PERIOD AS HUMID AIRMASS GETS ESTABLISHED OVER REGION.  FIRST
CONCERN IS POTENT S/WAVE SET TO DIVE SE ACROSS NWRN PA LATER TODAY.
THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOO AND SHOWING UP NICELY ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF
VORT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE ACROSS LOWER MI.  THIS ACTIVITY
CONTS TO WEAKEN BUT COULD MAKE IT TO KERI AROUND DAYBREAK. AT SAME
TIME CDFNT OVER LOWER MI WILL CONT TO SAG S.  THIS FRONT WILL CROSS
INTO FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AM.  DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AND EXPCT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES THRU.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ERN AREAS AS VORT MOVES THRU.  THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING SVR AROUND MIDDAY ROUGHLY ERN
1/2 OF AREA.  UNFORTUNATELY THE FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE S
LATER TONIGHT KEEPING WX UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.  BOTH GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A PLAINS LOW TOMORROW AND TRACK IT
TO THE NE ON WED.  NAM SOL SEEMS A LITTLE OVER AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH
RESULTANT SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS NRN LOWER MI.  GFS SOL SEEMS A LITTLE
MORE REASONABLE WITH LESS SFC DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE SLY TRACK AND
THUS WILL BE FOLLOWED TDA.  SO...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT MORE STORMS TUE...AND TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS SFC LOW APPROACHES.  WL TRY FOR LIKELY
WORDING ALL AREAS TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED.

TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW MANY CLOUDS
THERE ARE.  GUID SUGGESTS MOST OF AREA SHOULD SEE 80 DEGS AGAIN
TODAY AND THIS SEEMS TO BE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  COOLER OBVIOUSLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
GUID LATER PDS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU SUN)...
NOT MUCH CHG FM YDA TO TDA IN MDLS WITH BASICALLY WARM BUT UNSETTLED
CONDS THRU MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HGTS LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.  WILL NEED TO BRING BACK CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE RDG BGND TO SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS.  NAM/GFS DIFFER ON SFC LOW POSITION WITH THE NAM TAKING
THE SFC LOW ACRS THE WRN LAKES WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT OVER NRN OH
AND LERI.  ALSO THE GFS REMAINS MORE MOIST.  WL CONT TO FOLLOW NAM
TRENDS WED AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE GRAPHICS
BUT FCST SHOULD READ MC. WILL ALSO GO WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN
WORDING VC CHC.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE
UPPR RDG IN DVLPG IN THE MIDWEST BGNS TO REACH INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL DRY OUT THE AREA AND BEGIN THE MID SUMMER HEAT WAVE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
600 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-111000-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
600 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO AND
ALL OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TODAY...
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.