Flooding in Nebraska, July 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
224 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DECENT UPPER
WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL.  LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE SITTING OVER NORTHEAST OK
WHILE THE OTHER IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  PRECIP RATES UNDER THE
STRONGER CONVECTION HAVE BEEN HIGH WITH LXN AWOS EARLIER THIS
MORNING REPORTING OVER AN INCH WITHIN A HALF HOUR.  BOTH THE GFS AND
THE NAM-WRF ARE OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS PAST MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON..ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS HAS SHOWN CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO TONIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE UPPER WAVE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AT LEAST A
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...THE PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA.

MOST OF TUESDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER WAVE AND A SMALLER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE
DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HOWEVER...AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THE EVENING HOURS IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MAY SKIRT ROOKS...OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE CHANCE OF THIS CONVECTION SLIDING A TAD FURTHER NORTH
INTO THESE COUNTIES LOOKS TO BE SLIGHT AT BEST BUT WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AREA.

THE REGION THEN BEGINS TO HEAT UP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
A RATHER HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.  LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE AREA AS
BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  EXPECT THIS TO KEEP THE AREA DRY AS WELL WITH
THE ONLY QUESTION BEING IF ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS AND NEB AFTER DARK.  WILL GAMBLE DRY AT
THIS POINT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 98 TO 102 WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS
AROUND 105. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AWJ/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
258 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
258 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED OUT OF THESE STORMS...BUT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

AS THE OUTLOOK AREA HEADS INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING AS HIGH AS 105
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)