Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, June 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE. MODELS HANDLING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WELL...AND LIKE NAM DEPICTION OF MOISTURE/SHEAR
PROFILES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WILL MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH ML CAPES TO 1200J/KG...30-
35KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10000FT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INVERTED TYPE V
SIGNATURES...SO WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CELLS.
LCL/S WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS...ALTHOUGH CAN NEVER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
AREAS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW HERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS...WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUILDING IN ABOVE 750MB.

FOR WED AND THU...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY COLUMN
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TAKING
HOLD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...A DRY PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFIED ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER TIME AND REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS IS INCONSISTENT WITH A SHORT WAVE
COMING OVER THE RIDGE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THUS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY PCPN UNTIL A TREND OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
APPEARS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/BRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

MNZ001-004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-271145-
WEST POLK-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-
RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-
TRAILL-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
638 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL..AND STRONG GUSTING
WINDS...ALONG WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY 7PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-
049-052-053-271145-
NORMAN-CLAY-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-
SARGENT-RICHLAND-
638 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM ROSEAU...TO HILLSBORO...TO VALLEY CITY. THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL..AND STRONG
GUSTING WINDS...ALONG WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 9PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.