High Wind in North Carolina, November 15 to 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER S PLAINS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY E WITH A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT. DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVING OVER
AREA WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AND GOOD SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD GFS
SO BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS EVENING AND A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NC AND GA MTNS...WIND ADVSRY FOR THE SC
MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...AND LAKE WIND ADVSRY FOR SC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. WIND SHEAR ALOFT IS QUITE STRONG AND ALTHOUGH ATMOS
DOES NOT GET HIGHLY UNSTABLE THERE IS A THREAT OF SCT TSTMS ACROSS
S ZONES THIS EVE...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SE ZONES
FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE EVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEE CAESPSGSP
FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT. A DRY SLOT APPROACHES
CWA AFTER DAYBREAK AND GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DURG MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIFT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY AND
DRAG THE DEEP THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH THE MTNS THU NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU
AFTERNOON...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 2 C WRAPPING BACK INTO
THE SMOKIES BY EVENING. A MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH LINGERING 850 TO 500 MB DPVA SHOULD WRING OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS THURSDAY NIGHT. PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS
THE POCKET OF COLDEST 850 TO 700 MB THICKNESSES JUST BRUSH THE NC
MTNS. WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE SOME MINOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SMOKIES. NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY DRY UP FROM S TO NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MTNS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH LEFT IN
PLACE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A
SHARPER...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON MONDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY...WITH NARROW RIDGING PUSHING BACK INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AT THE TIME. A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME NW FLOW MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GO
BELOW VFR THIS EVE...EVENTUALLY STAYING MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. OCNL
IFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR IT THIS FAR OUT. ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE
ATTM. AREA WUILL BEGING TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AROUND
DAYBREAK...LINGERING OVER THE KCLT AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SWING MORE S AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...GUSTING THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST 25KTS LOWER
ELEVS...35KTS AND HIGHER MTNS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028 UNTIL 7 AM
     THURSDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>035-048>056-058-059-062>068-
     501>510 UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 4
     AM THURSDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-054-055-066-501-503-505-507-509 UNTIL
     4 AM THURSDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>008-010 UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB/HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
235 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. VERY WINDY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS ON THE
WIND POTENTIAL...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...CAENPWGSP.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
STATEMENT...CAEFFAGSP...FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

FINALLY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CAESPSGSP...FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT A RAIN OR SNOW MIX IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160500-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
345 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA REMAINS LESS THAN IN GULF
COASTAL REGIONS LATE TODAY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM ELBERTON TO LAURENS TO THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THE SLOWLY IMPROVING INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. IN THESE LOW INSTABILITY BUT HIGH WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENTS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES CAN OCCUR WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING OR THUNDER TO HERALD THE APPROACH OF THE
DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN
PIEDMONT SECTIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SINCE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

GERAPETRITIS