Hail in North Carolina, August 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS THE CWFA WITHIN
THE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD SINKING
FRONT. ALOFT...S/WV ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH WILL WORK WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRIER
MID/UPPER LVL AIR...ENHANCING DELTA THETA-E VALUES AND SOME
SCATTERED WET MICROBURSTS. LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WELL
CARRY SOLID SCATTERED POPS EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE FAR LESS VOLATILE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITHIN LLVL NORTHEASTERLY NORTH OF CONVERGENCE
AXIS...WHICH BY THEN SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MAIN SOURCE OF
SOME WEAK LIFT LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SOME UPSLOPE AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER LVL IMPULSES RIPPLING THRU WITHIN WNW FLOW. SENSIBLE WX
FCST WILL MAINLY BE JUST A TOKEN SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS AND MAX
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NGHT THROUGH FRI...
WL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WED EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWFA. THERE IS
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING...AND THE MODELS DON/T RESPOND WITH
MUCH PCPN...SO I/M A BIT DOUBTFUL ABOUT EVEN LOW CHANCE POPS. ON
THURSDAY THE SAME HOLDS TRUE AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. LATE IN THE DAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT THIS FORCING LOOKS TO STAY UP THROUGH
KY AND THE VIRGINIA/S. HOWEVER...MODEL LAYER RH/S ARE HIGH...AND THE
MAV POPS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE. SUSPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IN THE MTNS DURING THE EARLY AFTN
WHICH WL WORK SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL TOLD...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
MAV POPS AND TEMPS ON THU.

FRIDAY/S FORECAST DEPENDS LARGELY ON WHERE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE.
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THU NIGHT AND
THEN DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALBEIT
WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE PCPN. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WHICH
IT HAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS
GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE POOLING AND HIGH CAPES WITH THIS
FEATURE. I CAN/T QUITE JUMP ON THE GFS BOAT ATTM...BUT I WILL KEEP
HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWFA AS A NOD TO IT/S NOCTURNAL MCS. I/LL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERING FRONTAL
POSITIONS OF THE TWO MODELS. THE NAM...HOWEVER...DOES LOOK A
LITTLE ODD AS IT TENDS TO SLOW THE FRONT ON ACCOUNT OF AN UPSTREAM
CLOSED LOW. THIS FEATURE IS THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS.

FRI NGHT THROUGH TUE...
HPC HAS FAVORED THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF AGAIN TODAY. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL REMOVE ALL POPS
FROM THE SUN-MON PERIODS. THIS ACTUALLY AGREES WITH THE HPC
FRONTAL POSITION WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE GRIDS MAINTAIN POPS THAT SEEM A BIT TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. I/LL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY...BUT I/M RATHER SKEPTICAL WITH THE FRONT SO FAR TO
OUR SOUTH. BY NEXT TUE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT ALL THE TERMINALS IN THE
VICINITY REALM FOR NOW...BEST AND EARLIEST CHANCES REMAIN AT THE NC
TAFS...AND LATE TODAY IN THE UPSTATE. OF COURSE...WILL AMEND WHEN A
SPECIFIC BONA FIDE THREAT MATERIALIZES. WILL RUN CHANCES IN THE
UPSTATE ALL THE WAY TO MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE MAX LINGERS
UNTIL THEN. OVERNIGHT...BASED ON DEGREE OF MIXING OF SFC DWPTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOG THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL IN THE UPSTATE...WITH MVFR
POSSIBILITIES AT KHKY AND AT LEAST OCNL IFR AT KAVL. MOISTENING
100-85H LAYER WITHIN NE FLOW OCCURS LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
INCONCLUSIVE WHETHER MVFR STRATOCU CIGS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP...12
UTC MET/MAV DOES NOT THINK SO...AND WILL LEAVE SCT FOR NOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-082000-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GASTON-GRAHAM-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-
HABERSHAM-HART-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-IREDELL-LAURENS-LINCOLN-MACON-
MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL-NORTHERN JACKSON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RABUN-ROWAN-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-
TRANSYLVANIA-UNION-YANCEY-YORK-
1034 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

WITH ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR THE REGION...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES AND PARAMETERS WILL RESULT IN ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVELS WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BY
THIS EVENING...ANY STORM TODAY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE 60
MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     HAIL             3 SE ROCKWELL           35.52N 80.37W
08/07/2006  E0.88 INCH       ROWAN              NC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF NICKEL-SIZED HAIL THAT FELL. THE WIND
            WAS STRONG BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN ANY LARGE LIMBS.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008-
009-081910-
ALEXANDER-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
CATAWBA-CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-
GASTON-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HENDERSON-
IREDELL-LINCOLN-MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL-
POLK MOUNTAINS-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-UNION-YANCEY-YORK-
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 140 PM...STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN SHELBY AND KINGS
MOUNTAIN...JUST NORTH OF HICKORY AND OVER NEWTON...AND JUST
WEST OF MARION.  THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH. PEA-SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THE STORM IN CONOVER
AROUND 130 PM.  EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH AND AT LEAST
PEA-SIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  ALSO FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...SO UNPLUG ANY VALUABLE ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT PRIOR TO THE STORM AND STAY AWAY FROM METAL OBJECTS AND
HIGH LOCATIONS DURING THE STORM.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH WIND OF AT LEAST 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WAS OVER THE TRI-CITIES AREA
OF TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

OUTLAW