Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION PROCESS LESS IMPEDED THAT WHAT WE SAW ON
SUNDAY...LEADING TO A HOTTER AFTERNOON...SOLID LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MIXING OF SFC DWPTS TODAY...SO WILL SO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEG F. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED...AND
SOURCES OF LIFT/TRIGGERS WILL RANGE FROM TERRAIN...LEE/PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER SW VA. VERY
MOIST SNDGS THIS MORNING...PWATS ON KGSO ARE 160 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WITH EXPECTEDLY VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. SO...SENSIBLE WX
FEATURES SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS WITH ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST AND LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RNFL POTENTIAL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 208 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE E. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED AND SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CWA TODAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AND THE NAM BRINGS A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTN-EVE SO WILL KEEP SOLID CHANCE POPS IN FCST. TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
OVER YESTERDAY SINCE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTN. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT W TUE ALLOWING A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO DROP SE TOWARD CWA. IN
RESPONSE...MODELS GENERATE SOME DECENT LIFT TUE AND WED
AFTNS...ENHANCING CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS THROUGH MID WEEK.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DAYS 4-7 AND A WEAKENING Q-STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER AREA THU-FRI. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR
CHANCE...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N FRI NIGHT...MOVING THRU THE AREA SAT AND STALLING TO THE
S SUN FOR CHANCE POPS SAT...SLIGHT CHANCE SUN.

AVIATION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LOW
LEVEL UPGLIDE IS WEAKENING QUICKLY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
IN FACT...FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC WILL BE OUT OF THE W/NW BY
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN WEAK DOWNGLIDE. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU THIS MORNING...AT LEAST NOT AS MUCH AS
DURING THE TWO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. HAVE THEREFORE AVOIDED ANY MENTION
OF LOW CIGS IN THE FORECASTS IN FAVOR OF A BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON FOG/
VISBY RESTRICTIONS...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DECREASE TO MVFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AS HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT
BETTER DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST TWO
DAYS...SO HAVE CARRIED VCSH/CB AT ALL SITES BY MID-AFTERNOON.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-080715-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
312 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     HAIL             9 NNE WAYNESVILLE       35.60N 82.94W
08/06/2006  E0.88 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF NICKEL-SIZED HAIL
            FELL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM. GUSTY WIND ROCKED
            THE TREES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY TREES TO FALL OR
            ANY LARGE LIMBS. THIS LOCATION IS BETWEEN COVE CREEK AND
            CRABTREE.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ036-037-057-072-082-071920-
CABARRUS-DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-UNION-
214 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS OVER EASTERN
IREDELL COUNTY...NEAR THE CONJUNCTION WITH DAVIE AND ROWAN
COUNTIES.  RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN AN HOURS TIME IN A RURAL AREA OF THE COUNTY.  THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH AND WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTY INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE OVER SOUTHEAST UNION COUNTY AND PARTS
OF CABARRUS COUNTY.  THOSE ARE ALSO MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL AS
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

NCZ082-071930-
UNION-
229 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING UNION COUNTY...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND WILL SLIDE JUST WEST
OF TRINITY BY 245 PM BEFORE EXITING THE COUNTY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH