Lightning Strike in Florida, August 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST AT
20 MPH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL TODAY...FIRST THIS
MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST THEN SPREADING INLAND AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. OFTEN EASTERLY FLOW WOULD
FAVOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE. THUS...WILL BLANKET POPS AT 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...IN LINE WITH GFS MOS.

AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...SOUTH FL
WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND POPS DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

WEATHER CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED...AS
GFS SHOWS UPPER LOW POSITIONING ITSELF JUST TO OUR WEST.
MEANWHILE...GFS SHOWS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD BECOME
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THESE
FEATURES. FOR NOW...TRENDED POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GFS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH REGARDS TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...SHOWING THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA EVEN BY THURSDAY. YESTERDAY IT KEPT IT
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL MOVE THE RIDGE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION RESULTING IN A LIGHTER
WIND FLOW PATTERN. KEPT A DIURNAL PATTERN OF GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT NIGHT AND CHANCE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
FOR E COAST TERMINALS AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A QUICK PASSING THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT APF AGAIN WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...C-MAN STATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING EAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOWEY ROCKS HAS BEEN RUNNING A FEW KNOTS
HIGHER...BUT THAT ANEMOMETER IS HIGHER. QUICKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY
EVENING SHOWED 10-15 KTS AS WELL. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS...ADJUSTED
WIND SPEEDS DOWN BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT STILL A TAD
HIGHER THAN THE GFS FOR CONTINUITY SAKES. A MODERATE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  90  79 / 40 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  79 / 40 30 20 40
MIAMI            89  80  90  78 / 40 30 20 40
NAPLES           92  74  93  75 / 40 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

GREGORIA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
424 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

FLZ063-066>075-080830-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
419 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING INTERIOR AND WEST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND LOW
TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH...MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES
TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST COAST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.