Flash Flood in New Mexico, August 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
326 PM MDT MON AUG 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND
DECEASE OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AGAIN COOLING OUR TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A POTPOURRI OF WEATHER TO LOOK AT TODAY. WEVE GOT
PRECIP...FRONTS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALREADY UP AND GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WELL PROBABLY SEE
SOME OF THE CONVECTION CREEP DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS. SPEAKING OF
CREEPING THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT CREEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
EAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL COOL OUR TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AND IT MAY INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES. AND THAT IS WHERE
WE COME TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE NGM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE WRF BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT CURRENTLY SITS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BACK OVER US. IF THE NGM IS TO BE BELIEVED WE ARE
GOING TO SEE ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR EL
PASO...BUT FOR NOW ILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTION
WHICH DOES INCREASE OUR POPS...BUT DOESNT BRING IN WIDE SPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP FOR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW ILL GO WITH THE
MIDDLE GROUND AND KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND LEAVE IT AT THAT. THE MIDDLE RANGE MODELS ALSO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WHILE THE DGEX KEEPS SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA. I WILL TREND THE
POPS TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE GFS IS
INDICATING. FINALLY A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONGER AND COOLER THAN TONIGHTS
FRONT. SO IVE DROPPED THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND. THEN WILL SEE ANOTHER NOSE DIVE IN OUR HIGHS FOR NEXT
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 00Z/29-00Z/30
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVELY. ACTIVITY MORE NUMEROUS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. LOCAL AREAS MVFR IN CIGS AND VSBY EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE ON EAST FACING SLOPES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.LATEST TAF AND TWB PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  85  65  87  66 /  30  50  40  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        62  78  61  82  60 /  40  50  40  20  20
LAS CRUCES              65  86  64  86  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              62  88  61  88  61 /  20  40  30  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              46  64  43  65  44 /  20  50  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  86  61  85  62 /  10  40  30  20  20
SILVER CITY             59  82  56  82  57 /  10  40  30  20  20
DEMING                  63  87  62  86  63 /  10  40  30  20  20
LORDSBURG               64  88  63  85  63 /  10  40  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

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