Tornado and Hail in Indiana, August 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE. WK UPPR WV PUSHING
THRU ERN IL ATTM GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
PT...CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED. MODELS PUSH WV SE OF
THE AREA BY 290700Z...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACRS
THE TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WV...CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AFT 290700Z AS SFC/850MB
FNT...ALONG WITH A WK 850MB JET WL STILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE AREA OF WIDEPSREAD CIGS 007-025 AGL WHICH WL BE
GRADU ADVECTING SWD ALONG/BEHIND SFC FNT TONIGHT...PSBLY REACHING
KLAF AS EARLY AS 290200Z...AND AS LATE AS 291200Z AT KBMG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS WILL BE ON EXTENT AND DURATION OF
PRECIP TONIGHT. LINGERING PRECIP AND TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF LAF TO NORTH OF MIE.
GREATEST FORCING ALSO LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA. SFC
LOW IS NOW LOCATED IN EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS.  A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  H8 WINDS ARE GREATER OVER
KENTUCKY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A SECONDARY H8 WIND
MAX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  H8 FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROS WEST
CENTRAL IL.  PLUME OF MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH
DEWPOINTS UP IN THE 70S.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
INCREASE UNDER CLD CVR...BUT HAVE REACHED NEAR 80 DEGREES NEAR THE
ILLINOIS BORDER WHERE WEAK WAA HAS HELPED WITH WARMING.  AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WL BE THE FOCUS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.  CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG
WERE ALSO PRESENT OVER ILLINOIS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER.
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.  WITH CONVECTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES STILL GREATER THAN
2.  GREATEST AREA OF LIFT STAYS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...THEREFORE GREATEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL BE IN THESE
REGIONS.  WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 23Z DUE TO THE
FACT THAT EXPECTED SCT CONVECTION STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN SPOTS THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL MOVE ACROS THE REGION. GFS IS
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST 850MB-500MB MOISTURE TRAILING INTO
ILLINOIS.  DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AND HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN AS WELL.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXITING THE STATE AND
ALSO WITH CLD CVR.  AT THIS TIME THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY.  TIME-HEIGHT
PLOT SHOWING INSTABILITY REALLY CUTTING OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAIN PATH OF ERNESTO OFF/NEAR EAST COAST.  ERNESTO MAY KEEP H5
TROUGH FROM MOVING EAST AND THUS MAY KEEP MOISTURE ACROS AREA
LONGER.  WL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN GFS IS
SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.

&&

AVIATION...JAS
PUBLIC...AB/CO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-291915-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
205 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2006 /305 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER RAINFALL OR ANY
FLOODING REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CO