Flood in New Jersey, June 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.UPDATE...
WILL BE SENDING AN UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE SHORTLY.  BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXITING QUICKLY IN NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY, WILL BE CANCELLING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ALSO, HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, AS
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE AROUND A FOOT OR LESS AND HIGH TIDE HAS ALREADY
OCCURED THIS MORNING.

456 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS RAIN WISE,
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME PROBLEMS ON A NUMBER OF OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS HELPING TO MOVE THE RAIN FROM OUR AREA SHOULD BE
ALL THE WAY OUT OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THEREFORE WE HAVE
BROUGHT DOWN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER NOON TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE COAST. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OUTLINED IN A /SLIGHT
RISK/ ON THURSDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THERE
IS SOME MARGINAL CAPE/LIS FORECASTED RIGHT NOW WITH DECENT PVA
DURING THE DAY. TROUGH DOES TRY TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SO THIS MATTER WILL HAVE TO BEEN WATCHED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST SHIFTS. THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MAY BE DRY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA, WHICH IS WELL
NEEDED AFTER ALL THIS RAINFALL WEVE GOTTEN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH NOTHING LOOKS TO BE VERY SERIOUS AT
THIS TIME. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS,
WITH IFR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN.  LOW CENTER IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW, BUT THE
DRYING IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY.  EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES AND THEN GO DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS
POPS DROP TO LOW CHANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP MARINE FLAGS IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH LOW CENTER STILL
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATER TODAY.  A FEW RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAYS ARE THEN IN
STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE DELMARVA AS WELL AS
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INLAND NEW
JERSEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
AS THIS HAPPENS, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF OUR
AREA. MANY OF OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING OR
ARE FORECASTED TO EXCEED THEIR FLOOD STAGE, PLEASE REFER TO THE
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FUTURE UPDATES TO THESE FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-453>455 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>452 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ453>455 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8
     PM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...ROBERTSON
AVIATION/MARINE...NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-291000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
547 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED ON A NUMBER OF RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS THE AREA, PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG WINDS AND ALSO HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

ROBERTSON