Wildfire in New Jersey, April 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1034 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

A LTL IMPULSE DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
THAT SHOWS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SOME ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INDICATED A SMALL CHANGE TOWARD THE
PESSIMISTIC IN THE SKY COVER FORECAST OVER FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST ZONES. SRLY SYNOPTIC AFTN WIND PLUS LOW WIND VALUES IN THE
LOWEST 3K FT MADE ME TURN THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE AND
LOWER THE AFTN MAXES INTO THE UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE NO SIG CHANGES TO
THE FCST. PREV AFD IS BELOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

MPD

********************************************************************

.OVERVIEW/...
HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT NICE WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHORE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POCONOS...ATLANTIC CITY...BELMAR AND MT. POCONO IN THE MID 50S.
AND MORE OF THE SAME ON THE WAY WITH NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
AND LOWER LVL PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY AS IT HAS BEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME IS THE DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE SFC RIDGE TAKING UP RESIDENCE TO
THE SOUTH OF US AND LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABLE TO WORK
NORTH. MEANWHILE...DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF THE MAJOR TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST IS UNABLE TO FEED OFF THE GULF MOISTURE SO THE
FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES...AND THEN AT TIMES NOT SO SURE
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONE THING IS
FOR THE SURE IS THE RISE IN THE DEW POINTS DAY TWO INTO THE 50S.
SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN TOO TERRIBLY OFTEN THIS YEAR. WHAT
MOISTURE THERE IS IS WORKING WEST OR INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL IT MAY BE
ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE SHORT WAVES AND GATHER ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. ONE SUCH SYSTEM IS
GOING TO WORK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE PRIMARY LOW MOVING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT JUST SAGGING
BY ON THURSDAY. QPFS WERE 1/3 TO NEAR 1/2 INCH OVER THE LOWER LAKES
BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE BEST SURFACE CURVATURE
WE ARE LEFT TO WRING OUT ABOUT .05 OR NEARLY .10 INCH. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM GETS TANGLED IN THE MID APPALACHIANS AND THE
GENTLE UP SLOPE FLOW KEEPS ABOUT .25 INCH TOGETHER. THE UPPER FLOW
IS THROWING EVERYTHING AT US FROM THE 50H LEVEL BUT THE RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH IS DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND INTO THE 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING W-NW MORE AND MORE OF THE ENERGY
SLAMMING INTO THE WEST COAST IS STREWN ALL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION RESEMBLING A TRASH HEAP OF ATMOSPHERIC DEBRIS. SH/W AFTER
SH/W SETS OUT TO SURVIVE THE PERILOUS JOURNEY ACROSS THE 10-12,000
FT MOUNTAIN TOPS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ONLY TO BECOME DISORIENTED
AND LOOSING IT/S WAY AND THE SUPPORT IT ENJOYED MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE WEST COAST. ON SATURDAY...A STRONGER MEMBER OF THE SH/W BRIGADE
MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT REGION OF CALIFORNIA...SWINGING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL CAMPED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, THE LOW IS JUST A HOP...SKIP AND A JUMP AWAY FROM
SPREADING PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THEN AGAIN,
YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE DRY FOR SUNDAY, AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BE JUST A HARE AWAY FROM DISAPPEARING FROM THE NEXT MODEL RUN TODAY.
IT/S TWO OCLOCK IN THE MORNING AND THIS EGG-CENTRIC FORECASTER IS
TRYING TO PAINT A ROSY AND OPTIMISTIC PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DECREASED SINCE EARLIER TODAY, BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS
CONTINUE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN.  ATTM, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

OVERVIEW/SHORT/LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION/MARINE...NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-120800-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
355 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

EBERWINE