Hail in Nebraska, September 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

.SHORT TERM...VERY WET NEXT FEW DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS A COUPLE OF STRONG UPPER WAVES
ARE SHOWN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE FIRST WAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION...WILL PUSH EAST INTO
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WHILE THE SECOND WAVE CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FIRST WAVE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAN THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF.
WITH THE NAM HAVING LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE TIMING OF THE WAVE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.

TONIGHT WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE UPPER WAVE REMAINS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA WHILE A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
EVENING...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALLOW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH MU CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...EXPECT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME ALTHOUGH SEVERE LOOKS
UNLIKELY.

THE UPPER LOW IS THEN SHOWN TO TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY WITH A BAND MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS PROVING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH MU CAPE STILL IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE AND PW VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SOME AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LOW THEN STARTS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
SHUTTING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD CREATE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN THIS EXITING
SYSTEM AND THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.  THE NEXT WAVE IS THEN SHOWN BY THE GFS TO RIDE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AND
A BIT WET AS ENTIRE REGION IS STUCK IN RESIDUAL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATURDAY
IS POTENTIAL THE WETTEST...AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE LOW. CWFA COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES TRIM DOWN SATURDAY...AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. WE WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY COOL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AT BEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
H85 TEMPERATURES WARM. COOL START AND WEAK FLOW MONDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMALS (MID TO UPPER 70S IN GENERAL). SOME CONSENSUS THAT NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH WITH REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN IT IS 7 DAYS OUT
AND PROSPECTS LOOK VERY SMALL...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1132 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)