Hail in Nebraska, September 15, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
406 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY PROBLEMS ARE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSORMS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND TEMPERATURES DURG THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

DEEP UPR TROF AT 12Z WAS OVR THE PACIFIC NW WITH SERIES OF LEAD
SHORTWV TOFS EJECTING OUT ACRS THE RCKYS AND CNTRL PLNS.  AT H85
PLUME OF MSTR EXTDS FM WRN TX ACRS CNTRL AND WRN NEBRASKA INTO THE
DAKOTAS.  STG LO LVL JET CONTS TO ADVCT LO LVL MSTR NWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLNS. LEAD UPR SHORTWV TROF IS ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL JET MAX
MOVG ACRS KS.  THIS SHUD ENHANCE UVVS ACRS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSIBLE TONIGHT ACRS
THE OAX CWA.  THERE MAY BE A CHC OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY N
OF COLUMBUS. ACTVITY THAT HAS BEEN DVLPG FM DAVID CITY TO MARSHALL
COUNTY KS IS ELEVATED CNVTN DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT.  A SECOND WAVE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CNTRL AND WRN NEBRASKA
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

ON SATURDAY SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AND ATMOSHERE SHUD
BCM UNSTBL BY AFTN INTO THE EVNG AHD OF AFTN.  NAM40 CAPES INDC CAPE
VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG.  HELICITY VALUES ON SATURDAY LOOK FVRBL FOR
SUPERCELLS STORMS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DVLPMT.  STG MID LVL DRY
PUNCH WL CREATE STGS ON PREFRONTAL TROF/DRYLN BY AFTN.

STORMS SHUD CONT ON SATURDAY NGT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AREA
CLEARS OUT.

IN THE EXTENDED.  KEPT MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE OAX CWA AS ANOTHER UPR LVL SHRTWV TROF MOVS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
734 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
734 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE BEATRICE TO PENDER. LARGE
HAIL UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH 60 TO 80
MPH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS. DUE TO INCREDIBLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THERE ALSO IS A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS AS WELL...FROM CRETE NORTHWARD TO COLUMBUS...THEN NORTHEAST
TOWARDS PENDER.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
NEARLY AS GREAT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA. SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DRY LINE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE BY 2 TO 4 PM...
MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA DURING
THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA.

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             12 W VERDIGRE           42.60N 98.27W
09/15/2006  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
728 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 S LINDSAY            41.51N 97.69W
09/15/2006  E60 MPH          PLATTE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
744 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E DUNCAN              41.39N 97.42W
09/15/2006                   PLATTE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORN STALKS BEING BLOWN DOWN. WIND ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
811 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             3 W RISING CITY         41.20N 97.35W
09/15/2006  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0810 PM     HAIL             3 W RISING CITY         41.20N 97.35W
09/15/2006  E1.75 INCH       BUTLER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&