Hail in Nebraska, June 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
245 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST SHOT AT CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DUE TO H3 JET DYNAMICS IN
TANDEM WITH COOLING H7 TEMPS. SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WITH THESE AS ALREADY STORMS ARE INTENSE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AVAILABLE TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...ALONG WITH MORE INTENSE HEATING. NAM INDICATES BL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR OF 30-
40KT SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. EXACT PLACEMENT
OF SURFACE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...BUT
ANYWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA WILL STAND THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DUE TO POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO STORMS THAT INITIATE WITHIN THE
CWA...DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY WORK TO
THE ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS
AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HEADS
ACROSS KS AGAIN...MANY AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AS WELL WITH JET DYNAMICS STILL IN PLACE. FRIDAY
IS TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH THEN REMAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WARMED UP TEMPS ON FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN ZERO CIN BY
18Z...THEREFORE DID NOT GET FANCY WITH POP TIMING AND KEPT ANOTHER
12HR PERIOD. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HOWEVER SHOULD BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. NO
CHANGES TO POPS ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR TSRA STILL THERE. MAY
NEED SOME POPS FOR SUNDAY AGAIN WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW. TEMPS A
BIT TRICKY BUT THINK LOWEST VALUES BASED ON CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO
WILL HOLD IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...
WARMED UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ONLY SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING
ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST ALTHOUGH ISOLD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS IMPACTING
THE AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WV PLACES PLACES UPPER LOW OVER THE MB/SK BORDER. CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IS MOVING GNERALLY TO THE ENE...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER SD
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SEVERE...SO WILL CONTNIUE TO MONITOR THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING ESPESCIALLY WITH THE RIGHT MOVER
APPROACHING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-211100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
107 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 /1207 AM MDT WED JUN 21 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THEN THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

KAR