Hail in Nebraska, April 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
153 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER...THEN
PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...THEN STRONG WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRES CENTERED WEST OF CNK WITH ANOTHER
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRES NORTH TOWARD ORD AND ALSO SW WEST OF LBL
KANSAS. TEMPS AROUND AROUND 80 FM TQE TO BIE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S. THE DRY LINE IS WEST OF RSL KS. BASED ON SFC
ANALYSIS...INITIAL THREAT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND DRY PUNCH FM
CNTRL INTO NE KS. SPC SUPERCELL PARAMETERS HIGHLIGHTING NE KS AND
THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  THE 18Z TOP
SOUNDING STILL HAD A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME WITH -286 J/KG. THE
OAX SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO AND THE SOUNDING JUST
CAME IN. STILL A CAP OF -217 J/KG TO OVERCOME...BUT ONCE THIS IS
ELIMINATED...STORMS SHOULD TAKE OFF. SPC CONTINUES THE HIGH RISK
OVER SE NEB WITH A MODERATE RISK FARTHER N. VISIBLE STLT SHOWING
STORMS STARTING TO GO IN CNTRL KS. A MODIFIED SOUNDING OVER SE NEB
SHOWS THE CAP IS NEARLY GONE...SO WILL LIKELY GO INTO WARNING MODE
SHORTLY. SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE NEAR THE LOW IN NEB
S INTO KS AND ACRS SE NEB. DEEP LYR CONVERGENCE IS NR THE FBY
AREA. SBCAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG ACRS ERN NEB AND ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 3000 K/KG. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
AND BRN SHEAR OF 30-50 M2/S2 AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND FOCUS
OVER SE NEB. PDS TORNADO WATCH APPEARS WELL PLACED OVER ALL OF SE
NEB INTO KS AND GOES THRU 02Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIFT CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...THUS ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. BEYOND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO THIS EVENING...WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND ADVISORY THREAT INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO THE
DAVID CITY AND JEFFERSON COUNTY DUE TO ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
AND LOW 1 TO 2 INCH GUIDANCE ON FLOODING

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MONONA COUNTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO ASSESS AND IF THINGS GO AS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE TO EXPAND
FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AS WIND RATCHET UP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO MISSOURI WITH
DECREASING SFC WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING SUNDAY.

THE EXTENDED SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SUNDAY TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY. THERE IS A LEAD WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN MID
LEVEL TROF OFF THE WEST COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED DISPARITY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH IN THE OUTPERIODS...MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE CHC OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT HIGHS AND LOWS MOSTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-NEZ012-NEZ015-NEZ016-NEZ017-NEZ018-
     NEZ030-NEZ031-NEZ032-NEZ033-NEZ034-NEZ042-NEZ043-NEZ044-
     NEZ050-NEZ065-NEZ078-NEZ088.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ011-NEZ012-
     NEZ015-NEZ016-NEZ017-NEZ018-NEZ030-NEZ031-NEZ032-NEZ033-
     NEZ034-NEZ042-NEZ043-NEZ044.

IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

ZAPOTOCNY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-062300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1146 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY FOR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEWARD TO LINCOLN TO NEBRASKA CITY. A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE EXISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 2 TO 4 PM WHEN THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENS. DUE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. THE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY AFFECT AN AREA FROM COLUMBUS SOUTHWARD TO FAIRBURY...BUT
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF TORNADOES TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
LIKELY OVER A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE TO LINCOLN TO
ONAWA IOWA. SOME FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AND A
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AS THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE MORNING ALSO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO
MOBILIZE QUICKLY. A MEDIA AND EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFERENCE CALL WILL
BE HELD AT 1230 PM THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE USE THE NUMBER AND
PASSCODE THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT TO YOU.

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
125 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061930-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
125 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO OVERCOME THE CAP ACROSS JEFFERSON
COUNTY...BASED ON A TEMP OF 81 AND A DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER 50S.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING FOR FAIRBURY INDICATED THE CAP IS ALL BUT GONE
IN THAT AREA...THUS AM THINKING THIS MAY TAKE OFF AFTERALL. LATEST
1815Z SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
ALONG THE DRY LING...EXTENDING FROM KHSI TO KCNK. THUS...WOULD
EXPECT WE/D BE ISSUING WARNINGS WITHIN THE HOUR IF PRESENT TRENDS
HOLD TRUE.

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
148 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061945-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
148 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE CAP NEAR FAIRBURY AND
BEATRICE. 18Z LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AT TIME. THE 18Z KOAX SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
A SUBSTANTIAL CAP FURTHER EAST WITH A CIN STILL OF 217 J/KG. GOOD
SHEAR VALUES THOUGH EXIST ON THE 18Z KOAX SOUNDING AND THIS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
STILL WAITING THOUGH...AND STILL ANTICIPATE THAT WE/LL BE IN
WARNING MODE IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
226 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-062010-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
226 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

LATEST 19Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MOISTURE HAS REALLY
MIXED OUT IN THE AREA FROM KHJH TO KBIE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT HAS REALLY
MIXED DOWN...ALSO EVIDENT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
DEWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND THUS WE/LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THIS MOISTURE TO EDGE NORTHWARD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 84 DEGREES NEAR FAIRBURY...THUS IF WE
CAN REACH THAT...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP. ALSO...
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE AS DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE AREA. STILL
THINKING CAP CAN BE BREACHED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. STORMS MAY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SPLIT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE STORM WEST OF KICT WITH THE
LEFT MOST CELL BECOMING DOMINANT. TORNADO THREAT NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
JUST YET DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF LFC (LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION) AND
RELATIVELY MARGINAL 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES.

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-062130-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
305 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

LATEST 20Z ANALYSIS INDICATES RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
CONCORDIA KS SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE DRY LINE.  MAIN DRY-LINE PUNCH IS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  SECONDARY WARM-FRONT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTHWARD.
CELLS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
JEFFERSON/SALINE/GAGE COUNTY AREA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.  LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.

IN ADDITION...A NEW CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER NEMAHA COUNTY NEBRASKA.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN REACHED AND CAP IS WEAKENING.
EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
INITIAL MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
431 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-062231-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
431 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

LATEST 21Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AND ALSO ACROSS MISSOURI NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN IOWA.  MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS MIXED
OUT.

PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE SOUTH OF A
LINCOLN/NEBRASKA CITY LINE. SUPERCELL MOVING INTO CLAY COUNTY KS
RECENTLY HAD A TORNADO REPORT WITH IT. THIS STORM IS RACING NORTH
NORTHEAST AROUND 55 MPH. THIS CELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE JEFFERSON
AND SOUTHERN GAGE COUNTY AREA IN THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SMITH