High Wind in Montana, January 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MST MON JAN 9 2006

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HAS LED TO SUBSTANTIAL
LEE SIDE TROFFING TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO...HAVE SEEN OCCASIONAL ADVISORY GUSTS AT LVM AND NYE. WIND
ADVISORY HAS WORKED OUT WELL TO THIS POINT. SHORTWAVE NOW
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRESSURE FALLS
IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN MODELS
ARE ALREADY 2-3MB TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE PRESSURES IN CENTRAL
MONTANA...WITH THE AMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE AS MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARM...AND A FAVORABLE GRADIENT ORIENTATION...HAVE CONFIDENCE
THAT HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET 12-24 HOURS FROM NOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND HOIST THE WARNING...WITH EXPECTATION OF ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALSO NOTEWORTHY
IS VERY STRONG WINDS PREDICTED BY MET GUIDANCE AT LVM BEGINNING
12Z TOMORROW...GIVING FURTHER CREDENCE TOWARD A WARNING. WOULD
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN COMING DOWN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN.

OTHERWISE WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER...AND PROBABLY WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
WINDY SPOTS. WOULD EXPECT HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
MANY PLACES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW RECORD
LEVELS...BUT A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NONETHELESS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING SOMEWHAT CONSISTENTLY.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE BEARTOOTHS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE COMES THROUGH...AND WOULD EXPECT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY. EASTERN
SLOPES/BIG HORNS WILL RECEIVE MUCH LESS WITH THE SW-W FLOW...BUT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG HORNS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS HAPPENED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS AND LIKELY FOR THE BIG
HORNS UNTIL THIS CAN BE RESOLVED. EITHER WAY...PCPN TYPE OVER THE
PLAINS SHOULD RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...IE LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS REMAIN IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES ITS PLACE
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER TROF PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN LOOKS LIKE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE PLAINS AS NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A GOOD SNOW PRODUCER FOR THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING FARTHER INTO
THE EXTENDED...NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE ON THE
HORIZON THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. COLD AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP OVER
SIBERIA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -60 DEGREES...AND EXTREME
NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. OCCASIONAL AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/050 035/048 029/043 024/044 025/046 027/039 023/038
    00/N    03/R    32/O    00/B    00/B    33/S    22/S
LVM 034/047 039/044 027/041 021/044 026/046 023/037 020/036
    01/N    24/R    42/O    00/N    00/B    33/S    22/S
HDN 025/049 027/049 026/043 021/043 024/045 024/039 021/038
    00/B    02/R    32/O    00/B    00/B    23/S    12/S
MLS 024/046 027/048 025/040 017/042 018/042 018/036 017/035
    00/B    00/B    21/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    21/B
4BQ 022/047 026/049 026/042 018/043 023/047 023/040 018/037
    00/B    00/B    32/O    00/B    00/B    23/S    22/S
BHK 021/044 025/045 023/040 016/039 018/041 018/034 016/033
    00/B    00/B    22/O    00/B    00/B    22/S    21/B
SHR 022/050 025/048 027/040 018/042 025/044 022/038 022/032
    00/B    00/E    32/O    00/B    00/B    23/S    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>