Hail in Montana, August 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MDT FRI AUG 11 2006

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA AS CUMULUS FIELD IS BEING LIMITED
TO SASKATCHEWAN. COOD FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL AXIS PASSES
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE SATURDAY HELPING TO DEVELOP A
SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS
AREA LOOKS TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FROM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.
WITH THE ETA BEING TOO QUICK...DISCOUNTED IT/S SOLUTIONS.  -TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. TWEAKED SOME TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND HUMIDITY GRIDS TO ENHANCE COORDINATION FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT ADJOINING OFFICES. ELSE...FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...AGREE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR DRY PERIOD.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM THE COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UPPER TROF THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS
INDICATE THIS TO BE THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT THRU THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE GENERALLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK FRONT SLATED
TO CROSS ROUNDABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS TEMPERATURES
THAT WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE COOLER WEEKEND WILL COOL
AGAIN SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN CONVECTION...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
GET SOME WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN...IT MAY VERY WELL
BE HIGH-BASED AND MOSTLY DRY LIKE WE HAVE HAD MUCH OF THE
SUMMER. ALSO THERE ARE SOME MODEL INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD VERY
WELL FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO BE IN BETWEEN ENERGY TO OUR NORTH
AND SOUTH IN THIS FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AS IT HAS BEEN A DRY SUMMER AND WOULD PREFER NOT TO START HANDING
OUT HOPES TOO SOON FOR RAIN...OR AT LEAST AT THE WRONG TIMES AS
STILL MANY DETAILS MUCH IN DOUBT. WE ARE ALSO HEADING INTO A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY TIME OF YEAR...SO STILL FEEL THE BEST
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FAR EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CROSSING
REGION WILL COMPLETE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HIGH BASED...CLOUD DECK AOA 10K FT AGL...WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT VISIBILITY. VARIABLE STRONG AND GUSTY WIND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ELSE...NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND FRONT WILL
BE IN THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE
UNTIL NIGHTFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 12KT OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES NOT EXPECTED TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HELP
TO USHER IN COOLER BUT STILL SOMEWHAT DRY AIR WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. A SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO GIVE
THE AREA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE IT MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF THE
WET THAN THE DRY VARIETY. -TFJ

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE JUNE 1ST IS ONLY 1.26 INCHES. THIS IS THE
2ND DRIEST EVER FOR THE JUN 1ST THROUGH AUG 10TH PERIOD. THE
DRIEST WAS 1.24 INCHES IN 1979. SIMONSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW