Damaging Winds in Arkansas, August 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
252 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MENA TO PINE BLUFF WHERE THE MOST HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING IN THE SOUTH...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAKE IT
TO THE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BORDER BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY. THE FRONT MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND WILL SPREAD POPS BACK INTO THE
NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD MONDAY SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL UNTIL A WARM UP ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RDG IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACRS THE REGION DURG THE PD. A
WEAK FNTL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO WORK SWWD INTO AR BY LATE TUE AND TUE
NGT...POSSIBLY SETTING OFF SOME WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA. FM WED THRU
FRI...LOOKS LIKE ONLY ISOLD AFTN/EARLY EVENING STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY AT ABV NORMAL LVLS THRU THE FCST
PD. FCST HEAT INDICES WL NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY IN THE PD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  72  93 /  60  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       67  88  69  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  72  94 /  60  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  93  72  94 /  60  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  88  69  90 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     75  94  73  95 /  60  40  20  20
SEARCY AR         71  91  71  92 /  40  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  93  71  93 /  60  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  91  70  92 /  40  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-
ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-
ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT IDA...TO BENTON...TO CLARENDON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH  PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS.

ALSO...THERE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO SHERIDAN TO
STUTTGART.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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