Hail in Missouri, March 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE WATCH. CURRENT TRENDS SHOWING ALTHOUGH
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING ITS OWN...NO STRENGTHENING HAS BEEN
INDICATED...AND AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...NOT
EXPECTING IT TO STRENGTHEN. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WEST TO EAST LINE
FILL IN AS THE WINDS VEER...SO WILL KEEP LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS
GOING FOR AREAS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 PM CST TUE...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS HOUR. THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS HAS BEEN
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 700MB AND 850MB.
SCATTERED REPORTS OF HAIL VARYING FROM PEAS TO PENNIES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AS THIS LINE MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST.

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL
BE REPLACED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY LATE
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY MIDNIGHT WILL APPROACH AN INCH
OVER THE REGION AS 850MB DEWPOINTS REACH 8C TO 10C. AS MOISTURE IS
DRAWN INTO THE REGION...A BAND FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LATE TONIGHT AS
COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FORECAST FRONTAL
PLACEMENT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS A TOUGH CALL SINCE THE NAM
IS ABOUT 50 MILES FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. I HAVE HEDGED TOWARD
THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF SHOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TOO FAR SOUTH IN THE WARM SEASON.
TONIGHTS ELEVATED STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE A COLD POOL
DEEP ENOUGH TO FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS. FAVORING
THE GFS...THE BAND OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS FORECAST LAPSE
RATES CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC SO I DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF HAIL.

BY TOMORROW...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. EVEN THOUGH CAPE VALUES MAY BE HIGHER
THAN THE NAM SUGGESTS (SINCE THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
FRONT)...STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. EARLY MARCH
SUN WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK THROUGH DEBRIS FROM MORNING
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL STRATUS. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD SURVIVE AS FAR EAST
AS THE KANSAS MISSOURI STATE LINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS LIKE WE HAVE HAD TODAY.

PROBABLY A GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. THE HPC 24 HOUR QPF PUTS A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLEASANT
HILL FORECAST AREA OVER AN INCH. AND SINCE MORE RAIN IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME SPOTS MAY RECEIVE AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING TWO OR THREE INCHES IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EVEN THOUGH
MOST OF THE PLEASANT HILL FORECAST AREA IS SUFFERING FROM DROUGHT
BEGINNING LAST FALL...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AN ESF (FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK) WILL
BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KOCH

412 AM TUE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...RIDING UP THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDS FROM MONTANA SOUTH TO COLORADO.
SURFACE RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IS A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. 850MB JET IS
CRANKING UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...POINTING DUE NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS CAN BE SEEN JUMPING RAPIDLY ACROSS
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA UNDER THE THETA-E RIDGE THAT HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
THE GULF. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...A DRY SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY KEEPING WINDS FROM THE
EAST AND DEW POINTS LOW.

THE DAY WILL START WITH A DRY AND COOL SOUTHEAST WIND AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER TO OUR EAST
WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
COOL AIR WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE AS ELEVATED CONVECTION GETS
STARTED DURING AFTERNOON.

AROUND NOON THE 850MB JET WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PLACE
THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
IOWA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 300 TO 310K
LAYER ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. BUMPED POPS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE WILL
LEAN OVER INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING HOURS TAKING
THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE JET WILL
BECOME REPOSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARKS. SO...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET TO OUR EAST...THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD ALLOW SOME
ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED MODE OF CONVECTION TODAY.
RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...IMPLIES CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP THE
STORMS MOVING QUICKLY WHILE PROVIDING ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL SPIN UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MISSOURI IN RESPONSE. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL STALL ANYWHERE FROM I-70 TO THE
IOWA BORDER. MODEL PREFERENCE IS LOOSELY TIED TO THE NAM AND ITS
SURFACE FEATURES. GFS SEEMS TO ADVECT THE WARM AIR A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH GIVEN THE RAIN COOLED SURFACE LAYER ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...KICKED
WEDNESDAY HIGHS UP SOUTH OF I-70. PRECIPITATION WISE I PLACED HIGH
END LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE NAMS SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS
I-70...SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WITH THE SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION...CONVECTION MAY
ULTIMATELY BECOME SURFACED BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOCATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT
ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE
THERE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.
ISOLATED TORNADOS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUBSTANTIALLY. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FRONTAL POSITION CLOSELY.

A THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
750 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
750 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST OF A LINE FROM RICHMOND TO WARRENSBURG TO CLINTON.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF KANSAS CITY...BUTLER...MIAMI AND MOUND
CITY KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF A
WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM
IS UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

KSZ103-080645-
LEAVENWORTH-
1208 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY UNTIL
1245 AM CST...

AT 1203 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAWRENCE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LINWOOD BY 1215 AM CST.
  7 MILES SOUTH OF BASEHOR BY 1225 AM CST.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BOOKBINDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

KSZ104-080700-
WYANDOTTE-
1223 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY UNTIL 100
AM CST...

AT 1218 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DE SOTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EDWARDSVILLE BY 1230 AM CST.
  KANSAS CITY BY 1235 AM CST.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

BOOKBINDER