Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, March 8 to 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE
BACKED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THIS WILL BE OVERALL
TREND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM MAY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE AS DRYLINE
SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES AND UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIKELY POPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE IN LINE WITH GFS.

AFTER COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN
WITH A NICE WARMUP. ALTHOUGH SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL HELP
WITH FIRE WEATHER...WESTERN PARTS LIKELY WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS
WITH CURRENT SYSTEM AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY.

TROUGH OVER WESTERN PART OF COUNTRY WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY
FAR SOUTHEAST AS BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  58  41  76 /  70  60   0  10
HOBART OK         45  61  40  78 /  40  20   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  64  42  79 /  60  20   0  10
GAGE OK           38  60  37  75 /  40  20   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  55  37  75 /  60  60  10  10
DURANT OK         59  68  44  77 /  90  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
745 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
745 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO
WOODWARD...AND CHEYENNE. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM BARTLESVILLE...TO PURCELL...DUNCAN...AND WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT...
THROUGH 6 AM.

IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
TO 70 MPH...AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE RISK AREAS OVERNIGHT...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR...PARTICULARLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE...AND MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING CLOSER TO A DRYLINE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
WEATHERFORD...LAWTON...AND SEYMOUR...SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE
LINES OF STORMS...ONE POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER
CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE. THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH SUPERCELLS...AND
MULTIPLE WARNINGS POSSIBLE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STRONG SHEAR...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70
MPH WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOWER LEVEL WINDS IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA LATE TONIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY MAR 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSING OVER THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA EARLY
THURSDAY...SMALL...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT HAIL
PRODUCERS AS THE COLD CORE OF THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE FIRE DANGER WILL PERIODICALLY REACH THE HIGH OR VERY HIGH
CATEGORY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY. A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
519 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ090-082330-
CLAY TX-
519 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF BUFFALO SPRINGS AT
519 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CLAY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

OKZ045-046-050-090015-
CARTER OK-JEFFERSON OK-LOVE OK-
605 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...JEFFERSON AND LOVE
COUNTIES.

AT 605 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRADY AND
WILSON IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LOVE
COUNTY...AND CARTER COUNTIES. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN CARTER...JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES