Hail in Missouri, February 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1104 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

A COLDER AIRMASS MORE INDICATIVE OF EARLY FEBRUARY WAS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE.
STRATUS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM COVERED THE EASTERN OZARKS.
REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW THAT 925-850 MB WINDS HAD VEERED TO THE
NORTHWEST DEPICTING THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOW LOCATED OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THE GFS IS PREFERRED SINCE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND THE 18Z NAM IS ALSO TRENDING SIMILARLY.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING.  MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE OF CONCERN GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE INITIALLY IN
PLACE AND ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL SATURATE TOP DOWN WHICH ALSO DELAY THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM AND QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN...I WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ULTIMATELY THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ALLOWING CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. A DECENT 500MB SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...WILL LOOK AT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES A THIS TIME AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TERRITORIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL U.S. IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO CHANGE IN
SITE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS. CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL THEN RIDE UP AND
OVER THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE EVERY ONE TO TWO DAYS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG RANGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE SGF/JLN
TERMINAL LOCATIONS.  LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN BY MID MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
849 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
849 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG