Lightning Strike in Mississippi, July 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA IS GOING TO
HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF
TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
PARKED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE THE LOW WEAKENING AS A RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. THE MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLING INTO THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY FRI AS A CONTINENTAL
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN OVER THE REGION WITH THE TROPICAL FETCH
PATTERN ENDING. THE BOUNDARY THEN LOOKS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING. THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT ALSO LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND
EXPAND EASTWARD SUGGESTING A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONAL CLIMATE
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS POINTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  87  70  89 /  40  70  40  20
BTR  73  87  71  90 /  40  70  40  30
MSY  76  88  75  89 /  30  70  40  40
GPT  74  88  72  89 /  30  70  40  40
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-061100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORMS OVER TIDAL LAKES AND THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT MOVING INTO A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.