Flash Flood in Colorado, July 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
224 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS AREA IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
40S OVR WRN AREAS.  PW VALUES THIS MORNING IN THE AREA WERE ABOUT
130 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERN FLOW THIS
EVENING...THIS WL TEND TO KEEP STORMS ANCHORED ALONG AND NR THE ERN
MTS...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  THUS THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS WARRANTED.  WL KEEP HIGH SCT
TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING...AND BY LATE NIGHT
SHOULD JUST SEE GENERALLY ISOLD POPS.  FOR THU THERE IS NOT MUCH
CHANGE AS THE UPR RIDGE STAYS OVR THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW
AND THE MONSOONAL MSTR FLOW CONTINUING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THEREFORE THERE WL AGAIN BE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AND STORMS WL STILL BE SLOW MOVING.  ONE
DIFFERENCE WL BE THAT THE 700 MB FLOW ON THU SHOULD BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...NOT SOUTHEASTERLY LIKE TODAY...AND THUS THE STORMS
WL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE MTS.

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

LONG TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND DRYING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM
THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK IMPLIED QG ASCENT WITH H3-H2
LAYERED POT VORT FIELD MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HELPING INDUCE
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PWATS IN THE PLUME REMAIN BETWEEN
1/2 AND 1 INCH...KEEPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE FORECAST. WITH A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS LOOKS A TAD TOO COOL WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE
IN THE OFFING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
MOISTURE PLUME SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH STRONG JULY SUNSHINE TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ072-COZ073-COZ074-
COZ075-COZ076-COZ077-COZ078-COZ079-COZ080-COZ081-COZ082-COZ083-
COZ084-COZ085-COZ086-COZ087-COZ088.

&&

28/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
654 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-061300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
654 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO....INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...FROM 300 PM MDT
TODAY THROUGH 300 AM MDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...SMALL STREAMS AND ARROYOS.

AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY OR TUESDAY WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PRONE TO FLOODING...AS WILL LOCATIONS SCARRED BY RECENT WILDFIRES.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE RAMPARTS...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
AND COULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO URBAN AREAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...AND
TRINIDAD. IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY CAREFUL TO AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS THAT FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. URBAN AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...ARROYOS...AND BURN SCARS
WILL ALL BE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

AS SOILS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ESCALATE IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN REPEATED
HEAVY RAINS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
DAILY BASED ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL...OTHER WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

DUE TO AN EARLY MONSOON FLOW...THE ABOVE THREATS WILL TEND TO OCCUR
WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY THAN EARLIER IN THE SEASON.
CONSEQUENTLY...USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO MAINTAIN AN
INCREASED LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

LW