Tornadoes and Hail in Minnesota, September 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...CURRENT ASOS/RAWS OBSERVATIONS
ARE REPORTING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KT. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /30 KT/ THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY LATE MORNING/AFTN FOR THE
SW HALF OF MPX CWA AS THE LOW TO THE NORTH DEEPENS RESULTING IN
BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL AND TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN CEN SD...NEAR
PIERRE/HURON. A TOR WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF SD.

THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO DEPEND AND TRACK NNE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF MINNESOTA...REACHING THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO STRONG/SVR CRITERIA IN
THE ERN DAKOTAS...THEN SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR WRN CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL END
FROM THE SW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THE SYSTEM IS FCST TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ALONG THE ND/MN
BORDER SUNDAY AFTN. THE STACKED LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS FCST TO
BRING WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

BRANDT FOR MPX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
529 AM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
171030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
529 AM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE STATE. THE
MODERATE THREAT IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FAIRMONT TO
ALEXANDRIA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...
BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THE STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A LINE DURING THE EVENING AND ADVANCE
EASTWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF
MINNESOTA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

RAH