Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, May 29, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
209 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP AS OF 2 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419 WAS
JUST ISSUED...AND LOOKS VERY GOOD.

AIRMASS AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE
THE STORMS ARE FIRING. MUCAPE IS AROUND 5000 J/KG AND LI ARE
AROUND -11C...SO DEFINITELY NO SHORTAGE OF FUEL FOR THE STORMS.
LOOKING FOR BEST STORMS WHERE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL ADD MENTION OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO ALL ZONES THIS EVENING...AS THE CURRENT
WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED EAST WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THINK THE SCATTERED
STORMS MAY GATHER INTO MORE OF A LIKELY EVENT IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY THE TWIN PORTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE FRONT
WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN...BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY INTO NW WI
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN...BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD STILL BE A BIT OF ACTIVITY IN
NW WI. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS QUIET WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

COULD BE INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE NE IN SW FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AS WELL.

OTHER WEAK IMPULSES COULD KICK OFF SOME OTHER SPOTTY ACTIVITY FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND RETURN FLOW
PUSHES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON A DECENT LLJ.

MOS TEMPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  82  52  73 /  60  20  10  20
INL  55  81  52  74 /  30  10  10  20
BRD  57  82  54  75 /  40  10  10  20
HYR  63  84  54  78 /  60  40  10  20
ASX  62  81  52  73 /  60  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-301230-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
655 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LILES