Rip Current in Florida, May 29, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

.CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THAN YESTERDAY WITH PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND SUBSIDENCE ABOVE
800 MB. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N73W MOVING SW AND AN
UPPER RIDGE NEAR CAROLINAS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE NE FLOW THROUGH
500 MB. MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID
80S ON COOLER NELY FLOW...REACHING GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH ALONG
NE FL COASTAL ZONES.

.SHORT TERM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TUE WITH VERY DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE AREA WHILE NE TO E FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON 10-20 KT
ENE FLOW. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MID/UPPER LOW OVER WRN ATLC WILL
CONT TO MOVE SW WITH WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS THAT WILL EXTEND NWD TO NEAR 30N. THIS FEATURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL SPREAD ISOLD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WED. WED...SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE ELY WITH SUBSIDENCE WANING. WILL
MAINTAIN 20% PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ALTHOUGH INLAND ZONES OVER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA MAY SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S. THU...SFC HIGH PRES WORKS OFFSHORE OF MID
ATLC AND MORE SLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 20% MOST ZONES TO NEAR 30% SRN ZONES. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH DRY MID LEVELS
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRI-MON. SFC HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS
ERN U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFIES BY FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SE STATES WITH POPS INCREASING BY FRI AND SAT. FRONT
APPEARS TO DROP SWD INTO NRN FL ON SAT BUT LOOSING ITS PUSH AS MID
LEVEL SUPPORT IS LOST. THIS MAY RESULT IN SCT POPS EACH DAY DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 AND LOWS UPPER 60S/70.

&&

.MARINE...NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AT AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING SLOWLY TODAY WITH 3-4 FT OFFSHORE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE ALREADY RAISED RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE
CATEGORY AS NE FLOW AND WIND/SWELL SURF INCREASES. MAY ALSO BE
A SMALL 1-1.5 FT SWELL MIXED INTO SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. PERSISTENT NE
TO E FLOW THROUGH WED BECOMES MORE SLY BY THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  91  67  89 /   5   0   5  20
SSI  70  83  72  83 /   5   5   5  10
JAX  66  86  67  86 /   0   5   5  20
SGJ  71  83  72  82 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  65  89  66  89 /   0   5   5  20
OCF  66  90  67  90 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...SHASHY
MARINE/FIRE WX...ZAPPE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
857 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NORTH FLORIDA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NORTH FLORIDA BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/ECZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1116 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BAXLEY              31.76N 82.39W
05/28/2006                   APPLING            GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIWAY 144 NEAR BAXLEY. ALSO WATER OVER
            HIWAY 121. PERSON ESTIMATED AROUND 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
            IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

BKERNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1209 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S NAHUNTA             31.18N 81.98W
05/28/2006                   BRANTLEY           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED POWERLINES ON HIGHWAY 301 BETWEEN HICKOX AND
            NAHUNTA.

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E FORT MCCOY          29.36N 81.88W
05/28/2006                   MARION             FL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON 148TH TERRACE. PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0615 PM     LIGHTNING        HIGH SPRINGS            29.82N 82.59W
05/28/2006                   ALACHUA            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 HORSES KILLED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1218 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W OLENO STATE PARK      29.92N 82.56W
05/28/2006                   COLUMBIA           FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            TREES DOWN AT RESIDENCE 3 MILES WEST OF OLENO STATE PARK
            ALONG WITH MARBLE SIZE HAIL. TREE DOWN ALONG US 441 NORTH
            OF LAKE CITY.

&&

BKERNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1254 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W STARKE              29.95N 82.15W
05/28/2006                   BRADFORD           FL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG THE ROAD TO PRISON.

&&

BKERNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAIFORD                 30.06N 82.24W
05/28/2006                   UNION              FL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIWAYS 16 AND 121.

&&

BKERNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             2 SE BLACKSHEAR         31.28N 82.22W
05/28/2006  E0.75 INCH       PIERCE             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT HIGHWAT 84 AND TREE ROAD, POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.
            DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS ROOFS AT NEARBY TRAILER PARK AND DIME
            TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. EVENT OCCURED BETWEEN 530 AND 6 PM.

&&

PKEEGAN