Hail in Minnesota, June 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ONSET OF TSTMS ERY THIS MRNG IS TURNING OUT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
EXPCTD 24 HRS AGO WITH VERY SHARP INSTBLTY GRADNT WITH GOOD WAA AND
THETA E ADVCTN SPRDG INTO AREA. NAM12...OK ETA12 BUT BYE BYE...CONTS
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDL ON THE SHORT TERM. IT SUGGESTS A SECOND BAND OF
STORMS DVLPG SHRTLY BHND BAND CURNTLY MOVG OVER FSD. MEANWHILE
GREATEST CONCENTRATN NEXT FEW HRS SHUD BE UP N FROM HON TO BKX. FOR
PD STARTG AT 12Z WILL GO WITH LIKELY N AND E TO CHC/SLGT CHC SW.
ACTVTY SHUD MOVE OUT LATE THIS MRNG BUT WILL NOT DCRS POPS QUITE
THAT FAST AS SOME FRTHR DVLPMNT SEEMS LIKELY THIS AFTN. THIS ACTVTY
WILL NOT BE AS WDSPRD AS CURNT STORMS AND MORE OVER ERN HALF OF FCST
AREA. ALSO WITH LESSER WAA AND INSTBLTY/THETA E GRADNT AVBL...ACTVTY
WILL PRBLY HAVE A LTL LESS PUNCH OVER FAR ERN SD THAN CURNT STORMS
WHICH ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY MARGINAL SVR HAIL.  HWVR SWRN MN AND NWRN
IA WILL HAVE ADDED BENEFIT OF DECENT HEATG COINCIDING WITH FNT MOVG
OVER AREA...SO CURNT SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN GNRL LOOKS OK. A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SFC/LO LVL SYS BEHAVES WITH RESPECT TO WIND FIELDS.

TEMPS OF COURSE A LTL VOLATILE TDA BUT WILL FAVOR SOME DECENT HEATG
ESPLY SRN/SERN FCST AREA...MORE TWRDS MET GUIDNCE THAN FWC...THO I
GUESS ITS BYE BYE TO MET GUIDNCE ALSO WITH ETA DEMISE.

LINGRNG TSTMS ERN PART OF FCST AREA THIS EVE SHUD END TNGT. FOR REST
OF FCST...CHC TSTMS WED AFTN/NGT MAINLY SRN PART OF AREA IS KEPT. BY
NAM LOOKS LIKE WE CUD GET RID OF THEM BUT NAM MAY BRING TOO STG A
PUNCH OF DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO FCST AREA...A LTL MORE RDGNG THAN
MODEL FCSTS CUD TAKE CARE OF THAT. A BETTER CHC SEEMS IN STORE FOR
LATE FRI AND FRI NGT AS NEXT SYS ARRIVES. WILL CONT TO GETR RID OF
PCPN FOR SAT ON INTO ERY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GFS...BUT THIS IS A
CLOSE CALL AS A LTL BETTER DIGGING OF SHRTWV FRTHR W CUD EXTEND
THREAT INTO THE WEEKEND.

GNLY SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. SOME COOLING ON TAP FOR
WEEKEND INTO ERY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING MODELS ARENT GREATLY UNDERDOING
CNTRL PLAINS RDGNG. PLENTY OF DOUBT BASED ON RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE IN EXTENDED PD BUT SINCE THIS IDES FITS FCST WE HAVE HAD
GOING...WILL GO WITH THE LTL CHANGE IN EXTENDED FCST IDEA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-211200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A FEW REPORTS OF
HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO
60
MPH THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. IF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER NEBRASKA TODAY BECOMES STRONGER THAN NOW EXPECTED...SEVERE
STORMS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
THIS CASE...AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER FROM WORTHINGTON AND JACKSON MINNESOTA SOUTH TO
SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. .

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
MORNING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 400 PM...MAINLY
IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILLIAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 AM     HAIL             3 S HARRIS              43.40N 95.43W
06/20/2006  M0.75 INCH       OSCEOLA            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
441 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 AM     HAIL             ELKTON                  44.23N 96.48W
06/20/2006  M1.25 INCH       BROOKINGS          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 AM     HAIL             ELKTON                  44.23N 96.48W
06/20/2006  M0.88 INCH       BROOKINGS          SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
450 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     HAIL             5 W LAKE BENTON         44.26N 96.39W
06/20/2006  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY NICKEL SIZE

&&

JCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     HAIL             3 SSE ROSSIE            42.97N 95.17W
06/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     HAIL             6 N JACKSON             43.71N 94.99W
06/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCHAPMAN