Hail in Minnesota, April 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1037 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.UPDATE...
BEST LAYER WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOCUSED JUST OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SD CONVECTION DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY
INTO FAR WESTERN MN. THIS TREND GENERALLY CONTINUING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION DOES DEVELOP FARTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR INCREASING
POPS. 12Z MODEL RUNS DEVELOP A SHARP GRADIENT IN QG FORCING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN. CURRENT HIGH POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS
SCENARIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS AGREE THAT THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND FORECAST TROP LOWERING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH WHILE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TODAY. THESE FEATURES ARE AHEAD OF THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WHICH IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE CORRELATED WITH MID LEVEL
OMEGA AND THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. NAM DATA ON
BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG DRYING ACROSS THE AREA STARING EARLY FRIDAY.
PLEASANT...BUT COOL WEATHER...IS INDICATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION AT THE START OF PERIOD WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY...THEN THE PATTERN TRANSCEND TO MORE WESTERLY
AIRFLOW AS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS SHOULD HELP SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
100 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
100 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT IS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY FROM GRANITE FALLS TO
MANKATO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MINNESOTA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT.