Kentucky, 2006

Flood in Kentucky, January 23 to 25, 2006

January 23 to 25, 2006 · NWS JKL · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 23, 4:34 AM EST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 4:34 AM EST, 3 hours 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
TO THE MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ABOVE 3
INCHES. BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA
AND WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE VA...KY BORDER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHOWING UP IN
THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS MORNING. INTRODUCED
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FOR FOG FORMATION. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL ON TAP TO BRUSH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY
PER MOS GUIDANCE. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE SHORT
TERM...MORE FOR CCF PURPOSES THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH WHAT IS NOW
SHOWING UP TO BE A WEEKEND SYSTEM. PREFERRED TO STAY WITH
PERSISTANCE...MAKING LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITE SOLUTION CAN BE PICKED UP ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

930 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 850 JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850 THETA E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND THE CURRENT QPF VALUES
LOOK GOOD WITH 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

FOR THE GRIDS...OVERALL ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS
TO SHOW MORE STEADY READINGS. HEAVY RAIN WORDING REMAINS ALONG WITH
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

430 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WED)...

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AND TOMORROWS
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MOST MODELS SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SKY...WEATHER...AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS WERE ALL TWEAKED
TO REFLECT SLOWER SYSTEM PROGRESSION. DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT STEERING
WINDS...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE COMBINED TO FORM A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
OHIO. A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND TO FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER THAT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. COUPLE THIS WITH INTERACTION WITH
ANOTHER JET STREAM AT AROUND 500 MB...AND STEADY MOIST FLOW...THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR
SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
STEADY WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT
TIMES AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND FRIDAY. MODEL DEWPOINTS
WERE WAY OVERDONE BY THE MESOETA AND WERE TWEAKED PER CURRENT
TRENDS.

EXTENDED(THU-SUN)...SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD WORK ACROSS
THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
COLDER...THOUGH NEAR CLIMO NORMAL...TEMP TO START THE DAY ON THU.
UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH FRI...BEFORE A SW/V
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHER ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY ON SAT
AND THEN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CANADA ON SUN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE CWA EITHER LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN.
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRI...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. THE
GFS TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH A LEAD SW/V ON FRI. FOR
NOW...DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION AND WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. MADE
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY FOR WARMER HIGH ON FRI AND SAT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO...RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE

1106 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO
REMOVE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WORDING FROM THE TEXT PRODUCT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL
NOON MONDAY...EXCEPT FLEMING...BATH AND MONTGOMERY...UNTIL 9 AM

&&

RAY
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 23, 5:57 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
557 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-241200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
557 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF RUNOFF FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL OVERNIGHT WILL HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF FLOODING
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SUCH AS LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. ALSO...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.

PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. AREAS MOST PRONE TO THE
FOG WILL BE LOCATIONS NEAR OR ALONG WATER SOURCES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOOD
REPORTS THIS MORNING.

RAY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 23, 6:17 AM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
617 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FABER                   36.88N 84.13W
01/23/2006                   WHITLEY            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 26 AT THE UNDERPASS IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

PG
Local storm report, Jan 23, 6:19 AM EST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jan 23, 6:41 AM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jan 23, 6:44 AM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jan 23, 6:46 AM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jan 23, 7:35 AM EST, 40 minutes before
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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Estill

When
January 23, 8:15 AM EST to January 25, 2:00 PM EST
Where
Estill forecast zone
Reported by
LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates
37.693, -83.964 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Murphy Fork Road and Dark Hollow Road closed due to high water.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Kentucky in 2006Every state in 2006This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2006

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5486681.