Winter Storm in Kansas, November 29 to 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
227 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

.DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WEST AND SOUTH
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH ANY SNOW COVER.

WILL KEEP SNOW ADVISORY GOING IN THE WEST THROUGH 3 AM THEN ADD A
SNOW ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTH FROM MEADE TO
ASHLAND, COLDWATER, PRATT, AND MEDICINE LODGE. UKMET IS A BIT MORE
SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. SO
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH A BLENDED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS
WHICH WOULD GIVE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. THIS LINES UP WITH
HPC WWD GRAPHICS. ALSO WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THE SNOW RATIOS
SHOULD BE 15 TO 25 TO 1 SO EVEN THOUGH LIGHT QPF EXPECTED THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO MEDICINE LODGE. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY TILL
6 PM THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST THE SUN SHOULD
COME OUT IN THE WEST CWA ON THURSDAY. THEN WINDS WILL FALL BELOW
10 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE
IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND. FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST IF ANY SNOW
REMAINS.

.DAYS 3-7...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST.

AFTER THE CURRENT SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY, BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL HEDGE IN THE MIDDLE, WHICH GOES IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FCST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FLURRIES WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES THAT RIPPLE THRU THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT
ANYTHING WORTH ADDING A SLGT CHC POP FOR. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING US IN A FLATTER AND
THEREFORE WARMER WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO
MAINTAIN THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT A
FRONT WOULD USHER IN COOLER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (DAYS 6
AND 7). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AM RELUCTANT TO MAKE ANY
DRASTIC CHANGES NOW. THE REFORECAST ENSEMBLES FROM CDC POINT TO MORE
OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME, SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT 8 TO 10 DAY FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  11  26   7  41 /  50  10   0   0
GCK   8  26   6  41 /  80  10   0   0
EHA  10  27   6  43 /  80  10   0   0
LBL  11  27   6  42 /  80  20   0   0
HYS   8  23   7  41 /  40  10   0   0
P28  16  25  10  39 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ061>063-
074>076-084>086.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
KSZ081-087>090.

&&

FN06/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086-301100-
FINNEY-GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
316 PM CST (216 PM MST) WED NOV 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ THURSDAY.

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY LATE TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND ROAD
CONDITIONS.

KSZ030-031-043>046-064>066-077>080-301100-
EDWARDS-ELLIS-FORD-GRAY-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-LANE-NESS-PAWNEE-RUSH-SCOTT-
STAFFORD-TREGO-
316 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY MORNING.

WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND ROAD
CONDITIONS.

KSZ081-087>090-301100-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-MEADE-PRATT-
316 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM THURSDAY
EVENING.

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO NEW
MEXICO AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA BY
TOMORROW. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND ROAD
CONDITIONS.

LACY