Hail in Kansas, May 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN ANOTHER ROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND CHANCES OF RAIN.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA.
THIS IS MAKING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A DRYLINE FORMING
IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CURRENT THINKING IS SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG DRYLINE WITH 1500 TO 2000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM CAPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SHORT
FUSE COMPOSITE WITH THE INITIAL AREA OF DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS. THEN LATER TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE MEADE TO PRATT AREAS
BY 12Z. HAVE UPPED POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
SEVERE, LATE TONIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXCEPT
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA LOOK GOOD.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AROUND THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME MORE SHOWERS MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS MORE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE LEFT A 30 PERCENT POP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN FOR
THURSDAY LOOK FOR A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY ONLY BE AROUND
60 UNLESS SOME SUN BREAKS OUT.

DAYS 3-7...

FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALL SUPPORTING THIS TO VARIOUS DEGREES SO BASED ON
LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE OUR SW CWA WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PCPN FRIDAY. FURTHER NORTH STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN BASED ON 85H-7H MOISTURE AND INSTAB SO WILL
KEEP SOME LOWER POPS GOING HERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

ENSEMBLES AND MODEL COMPARISONS AT 12Z SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION IS MORE CORRECT BUT PER W/V LOOP OVER THE PACIFIC AND HT
ANOMALIES AM LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY WAVE WHICH DOES CROSS INTO THE PLAINS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN.
TIMING...AS ALWAYS...IS AN ISSUE THAT FAR OUT BUT AT THIS MOMENT
APPEARS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY WILL BE AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  66  48  61 /  40  30  30  30
GCK  53  64  46  60 /  50  10  30  30
EHA  55  66  47  61 /  20  30  30  30
LBL  54  67  48  62 /  40  50  30  30
HYS  52  64  46  60 /  40  10  30  30
P28  60  72  52  65 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1251 PM CDT (1151 AM MDT) TUE MAY 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE BEST AREA FOR INITIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF A MEADE TO CIMARRON TO DIGHTON LINE THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD.

THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SHARP SHIFT TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

06